818 
FXUS61 KOKX 080024
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
824 PM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across this evening, followed by high
pressure gradually building from the west this weekend. The high
will give way to a weakening frontal boundary from the north 
on Monday. Another high over the Great Lakes will strengthen 
over the area during mid week, then slowly move east beginning 
Wednesday night. A cold front over the Midwest on Thursday will 
slowly approach later in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Cold front moving through ern sections attm, with an isolated 
shower or two across coastal SE CT and eastern Long Island. 

The main upper trough lags behind the cold front passage. One 
jet streak will strengthen as it rounds the base of the trough
over the southeast and Middle Atlantic. By early Saturday 
morning, eastern portions of the area will lie in the favorable 
left exit region of this 100-120 kt jet streak, as well as the 
right entrance region of another departing jet streak over New 
England. 

There is limited moisture to work with, but mid and upper level
clouds increase tonight ahead of the trough with mostly cloudy
to overcast conditions from around the NYC metro on east early
Saturday morning. The lift from the jet streak should be enough
to support light rain development across mainly Long Island and
CT late tonight into early Saturday morning. Have bumped PoP up
to likely for eastern Long Island, with a few hundredths of an 
inch QPF possible. 

Otherwise, cold advection takes place behind the cold front
passage tonight. NW flow behind the front ushers in cooler air 
with temperatures falling into the 40s inland and upper 40s to 
low 50s near the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Lift from the passing jet streak and associated shortwave trough
move offshore quickly after day break Saturday. Clouds and any
associated light rain will follow and move well to the east 
around 11Z-13Z. Another shortwave rounds the base of the larger 
upper trough over the eastern states during the day, but the 
atmosphere is significantly dry. The shortwave may bring some 
scattered stratocu in the afternoon, but otherwise mostly clear 
to partly cloudy skies are forecast. The bigger story for 
Saturday will be the much cooler temperatures. H850 temperatures
look to fall to around 1C to -2 C during the day. This will 
combine with a breezy NW flow to bring temperatures struggling 
to reach 60 degrees. Most locations should only reach the upper 
50s, with the best shot at 60 degrees towards the coast. 

High pressure builds to our south and west on Saturday, which
will leave a modest pressure gradient over the area. Boundary 
layer winds are not that strong, but could see some gusts to 
around 20 mph, especially in the afternoon. Winds will weaken in
the evening with loss of daytime heating. One of the coldest 
nights of Fall 2022 is forecast for Saturday night. Winds become
light, especially inland with clear skies and a dry atmosphere 
supporting temperatures falling into the mid/upper 30s inland,
with some patchy frost. Lows elsewhere should be in the 
lower/mid 40s. 

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A broad upper trough aloft will persist to start the period,
with an embedded shortwave disturbance moving across on Monday,
which will send a weakening/moisture-starved front toward the 
area, which should wash out nearby or just south. Heights aloft
rise in the wake of the shortwave passage, with deep layer 
ridging building over the area beginning Tue.

Radiational cooling under mostly clear skies/light winds and 
nighttime temps falling below afternoon crossover dewpoints
from the previous afternoon may result in patchy fog mainly 
inland across parts of eastern Long Island each pre-dawn and
early daylight time frame from Mon through Wed. 

Dry wx should continue into at least Thu AM. The 07Z/12Z GFS
was likely too fast with the approach of a cold front in 
advance of a deepening closed low over the Plains states later 
in the week, while the 07/12Z ECMWF was much slower than earlier
guidance, keeping the front to the west through the forecast 
period, with light WAA precip well in advance. Not sure yet if
the slower frontal approach is real trend or an outlier, so 
followed NBM for now, which maintains better continuity of 
earlier guidance bringing the front through on Friday. 

Temps up to a few degrees below normal on Sunday should 
moderate to near normal on Mon, and to at least a few deg above
normal for Tue-Fri. WAA should result in nighttime temps well 
above normal Wed night and Thu night.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure builds in from the west tonight with a cold front
offshore.

VFR. There is a low chance of light rain late tonight (mainly
after 05Z) along the coast (mainly KISP and KGON. Probability 
was too low to include the metro terminals, but is also possible
for these terminals) with no impacts to flight categories 
expected.

NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts 15-20kt through around 03Z. 
Gusts may be more occasional. Northwest flow continues late
tonight through early Saturday afternoon, by which time winds 
will shift toward the W. Wind speeds will be around 10 kt or
slightly higher than 10 kt through the TAF period.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts may be more occasional.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.Saturday Night...VFR. NW winds G15-20kt. 
.Sunday...VFR. W winds G15-20kt.
.Monday through Wednesday...VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will pass east of the waters before midnight. Some
gusts up to 20 kt are possible this evening, but conditions 
should remain below SCA levels. Winds and seas should then 
remain below SCA levels into Saturday night. with just a few 
gusts on the waters to 20 kt during the day Saturday.

Longer fetch W flow up to 20 kt on Sunday via high pressure to 
the south could lead to a brief period of 5-ft ocean seas Sunday
afternoon E of Moriches Inlet. Otherwise conds look quiet longer
term with high pressure mostly in control. 

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are anticipated through the middle of next
week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/DS
NEAR TERM...BG/DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...BG/DS
HYDROLOGY...BG/DS