819 
FXUS64 KEPZ 080003
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
603 PM MDT Fri Oct 7 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 105 PM MDT Fri Oct 7 2022

Clouds and rain will continue over much of the area through early
next week. Most areas will see the rain gradually fall over the
next few days, but isolated areas (especially higher terrain) 
will see heavy rainfall in shorter bursts. Temperatures will 
remain 5 to 10 degrees below normal through the forecast period. 
Rain will move out Tuesday, but temperatures will remain cool with
overnight lows dropping in open desert and higher terrain areas. 
Quiet weather will persist through the end of the forecast period.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 105 PM MDT Fri Oct 7 2022

Another cloudy and rainy evening on tap for southern New Mexico and 
far west Texas tonight. All the weather ingredients from the last 
couple of days are still in place. We have an upper level trough 
sitting over northwest Mexico and this trough is pulling moisture up 
out of Mexico into the desert southwest U.S. Precipitable water 
values (PW's) range from a little below an inch to a little above an 
inch. These values are well above average for this time of year. In 
addition vort maxes (areas of instability) continue to rotate around 
the low; up and into southern New Mexico. When you combine the 
abundant moisture and continued instability you get off and on rain 
showers and thunderstorms. And when you factor in the above average 
PW's you get the potential for some heavy rain. Wide spread moderate 
to occasionally heavy rain will be possible tonight and into the 
morning hours. Although most of the rain over the last 3 days has 
been pretty much absorbed, we continue to see moderate off and on 
rain this afternoon that will continue into tonight. As soils become 
more saturated we will see more and more runoff which could lead to 
some isolated flooding of low water crossing or other flood prone 
areas. Low temperatures Saturday morning will run near or a few 
degrees above average. 

We can expect more of the same on Saturday, as the moisture and 
upper level trough will still be in place. We will have mostly 
cloudy skies with east or southeast winds of 10 to 15 mph. We will 
see off and on rain showers and thunderstorms during the day on 
Saturday, with a few storms producing some heavy rain. Looks like a 
wet Saturday, with the best chances for rain in the afternoon. Our 
high temperatures will continue to run 5 to 10 degrees below average.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 105 PM MDT Fri Oct 7 2022

Widespread rain with embedded thunderstorms will continue 
Saturday night into Sunday as the upper level low continues to 
stall and spin over southern AZ. A shortwave induced from 
convection over northern MX Saturday evening will rotate over the 
CWA from south to north early Sunday morning. This short wave, 
paired with upper level divergence, will keep widespread 
thunderstorms and rain chances in for most of the area through 
Sunday morning. Heavy rainfall will be seen with some storms, with
the best chances in higher terrain. Sunday, chances for isolated 
to scattered storms exists as the low starts to become elongated 
and open. Clouds most of the day could inhibit widespread 
convection, however persisting upper level divergence could help 
generate a few storms. Anomalous moisture remains over the whole 
area, so threats for isolated heavy rainfall continues with 
stronger storms that do form. Small hail could also be seen with 
stronger storms, as wet bulb 0C heights are around 11-12 kft MSL. 

Forecasted precipitation amounts for Saturday night through 
Sunday evening: 

 + Widespread Lowlands 0.25 - 1 inches with locally up to 2 
   inches 
 + Higher terrain (above 7,000 ft): 0.5 - 1.5 inches with 
   locally up to 2.5 inches (SREF hinting at greater than 50% 
   chance of seeing 2 inches) 

Rain should start to clear out of areas west of the Rio Grande 
valley Monday morning, as the upper level low begins to open out 
and reaches a wave by noon. The trough axis moves through Monday,
regenerating low clouds and light rain over most of the area by 
Monday evening. Rain totals are lighter for this round, as the 
deepest moisture has moved east at this point. 

Tuesday, another low will swing down the windward side of the
trough and land over western AZ. This will keep southwest flow and
lower 500 mb heights over the area. By Tuesday, much of the 
moisture will have moved out of the area, keeping rain and storm 
chances low. Temperatures will remain cooler, but sunshine should 
start to dry things out. Overnight lows starting Wednesday morning
will begin to drop, especially in the open desert and higher 
terrain. Freezing low temperatures are forecasted for the 
Sacramento Mountains above 8,500 ft for Wednesday through Friday.
Wednesday, the upper level trough over AZ will move quickly over
the CWA, and continue on southeast into MX. Deterministic models
keep this wave dry, however some ensemble solutions bring moisture
with it and return rain chances for Wednesday. 

Thursday and Friday, a strong upper level high will continue to
dominate over the Pac NW and northern CA, keeping northerly flow
over the CWA. This keeps the area dry and cool for the end of next
week. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 446 PM MDT Fri Oct 7 2022

Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected this evening. 
VFR to MVFR conditions are expected through the period. The reason
for the MVFR conditions will be due to SHRA/TSRA leading to lower
VIS and CIG. The strongest showers may result in further 
reductions in VIS into IFR category for brief periods of time. 
Currently, expecting a reduction of TSRA activity over the next 
few hours, but models indicate more storms late this evening,
early this morning. There is low confidence if these cells will 
hit the TAF sites, but added tempo groups for the most likely 
timeframe. Will make amendments as needed. The lower CIGS will 
result in mountain obscurations through the night too. Winds will 
be generally from the east and southeast with speeds AOB 10 kts, 
except near TSRA where gusty and erratic winds are possible.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 105 PM MDT Fri Oct 7 2022

Fire weather conditions will continue to be pretty benign as our 
rain chances for Saturday through Monday will remain pretty high. 
Rainfall totals of 0.50 to 2.00 over the next three days will be 
possible especially in area mountains. Min RH's will stay above 40% 
(even above 80% in area mountains) Saturday through Tuesday. We will 
see drier conditions for the middle of next week, but min RH's will 
still run above 30%. Ventilation rates over the next couple of days 
will range from poor to fair.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  59  74  58  72 /  50  70  70  70 
Sierra Blanca            52  69  53  67 /  30  50  60  80 
Las Cruces               55  71  53  70 /  60  70  80  70 
Alamogordo               53  72  52  70 /  40  60  70  80 
Cloudcroft               38  48  37  47 /  50  70  70  90 
Truth or Consequences    53  68  52  67 /  60  70  70  70 
Silver City              51  63  48  63 /  50  60  60  80 
Deming                   55  70  53  69 /  60  70  70  60 
Lordsburg                55  70  53  70 /  40  50  50  50 
West El Paso Metro       59  74  57  73 /  50  70  70  70 
Dell City                53  73  54  71 /  30  50  60  80 
Fort Hancock             54  75  55  74 /  30  50  60  70 
Loma Linda               52  66  52  65 /  40  60  70  80 
Fabens                   56  74  56  73 /  40  60  70  70 
Santa Teresa             56  73  55  71 /  50  70  80  70 
White Sands HQ           56  71  55  70 /  50  70  70  80 
Jornada Range            56  70  55  68 /  50  70  80  70 
Hatch                    55  71  54  70 /  60  70  70  70 
Columbus                 56  70  54  70 /  50  70  70  50 
Orogrande                55  71  54  70 /  40  60  70  80 
Mayhill                  44  57  43  57 /  50  60  70  90 
Mescalero                43  59  42  58 /  60  70  70  90 
Timberon                 41  57  41  57 /  30  70  70  90 
Winston                  48  60  47  60 /  60  70  60  80 
Hillsboro                50  66  49  66 /  60  60  60  70 
Spaceport                54  69  53  68 /  50  70  70  70 
Lake Roberts             45  62  42  62 /  60  70  60  80 
Hurley                   51  67  49  67 /  50  60  60  60 
Cliff                    49  70  44  72 /  50  60  50  60 
Mule Creek               49  65  43  66 /  50  60  50  60 
Faywood                  53  65  50  65 /  60  60  60  70 
Animas                   52  70  51  70 /  30  50  50  40 
Hachita                  52  69  50  69 /  40  60  60  40 
Antelope Wells           51  69  50  67 /  30  60  50  50 
Cloverdale               50  66  48  66 /  30  60  40  50 

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15-Brice
LONG TERM....31-Dhuyvetter
AVIATION...29-Crespo