575 
FXUS61 KBUF 072359
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
759 PM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A few light, widely scattered lake effect showers will be found 
southeast of Lake Ontario and Lake Erie through Saturday with 
limited coverage. Lake effect rain showers will increase in coverage 
east of the lakes later Saturday night and Sunday as a cold front 
approaches from the north and brings an increase in moisture.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CAA ongoing under NW'erly flow but the core of the coldest air aloft 
(500mb T's of -23C to -25C) remaining to our west across Michigan 
this evening. This airmass is cold, but also quite dry and will 
'likely' limit the lake response through Saturday. Otherwise...when 
we do see some response from the lakes, the northwest flow will 
direct lake effect to the southeast of the lakes. 

Off Lake Erie...this will mainly target the higher terrain of the 
western Southern Tier with some added ascent from upslope flow. 

Off Lake Ontario...lake effect will develop east of the lake 
and along the south shore of the lake from the Niagara/Orleans 
county shoreline east across Rochester to Oswego County, and 
then inland across the western Finger Lakes. Again to reiterate,
coverage of lake effect showers will remain scattered at best. 
While 850MB temps drop to around -4C and surface temperatures 
drop to the mid 30s across the higher terrain of the western 
Southern Tier, forecast soundings suggest the cloud bearing 
layer will be too warm to introduce any ice nuclei, keeping 
ptype mainly liquid with very little potential for wet snow to 
mix in.

Most, if not all of the limited lake response will end off Lake Erie 
by midday Saturday. Off Lake Ontario, a band of scattered showers 
will move north from Oswego County towards Watertown during the mid 
to late afternoon as boundary layer flow backs to the southwest 
ahead of an approaching cold front.

Low temperatures tonight will range from the lower 40s on the 
immediate lakeshores to the 30s inland, with mid 30s across the 
interior Southern Tier and low 30s for the North Country. Most areas 
will stay too cloudy and breezy for frost. The one exception may be 
across the North Country where partial clearing may allow for patchy 
frost. Highs Saturday will reach the low to mid 50s for lower 
elevations and mid to upper 40s on the hills.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Persistent longwave trough remains in place through all but the very 
tail end of the period. Chilly air within this trough will support 
some early season lake effect showers east of both lakes Saturday 
night into Sunday, especially across the North Country off Lake 
Ontario where a bit more synoptic moisture will accompany an 
environment with a cap of that appears it may now reach 8-10kft, 
which is even more favorable than previous. Capped PoPs at high 
likely in this area for plain rain showers as does not look cold 
enough aloft to support even any wet snow at this point. PoPs will 
need to be raised to Categorical off Lake Ontario once a more exact 
location of the lake effect activity is realized. Will keep Chc PoPs 
in place E-NE of Lake Erie. GEM remains the guidance of choice, 
although some other guidance is also now starting to latch onto 
this. Half inch plus of rain still looks plausible across the Tug 
Hill and western Dacks Saturday night through Sunday. 

A pair of shortwaves will then push a weak cold front through the 
region Sunday night and Monday. There may a few showers just ahead 
of the front Sunday night, with still the chance for a few showers 
Monday as the next shortwave rotates just south of our area through 
the base of the main upper level trough. Some of this shower 
activity will also be aided by residual lake driven convection east 
of Lake Ontario Sunday night, that will then gradually sink south of 
Lake Ontario for Monday as the boundary does the same. Otherwise, 
conditions may start to improve for the second half of Monday across 
the North Country, however it will likely take until Monday night 
for dry weather across the entire region as high pressure centered 
over the Mid Atlantic region is finally able to ridge over the 
region providing us with fair dry weather Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Dry and seasonable weather for Tuesday and Tuesday night as a 
progressive mid-level ridge shifts from the Great Lakes to New 
England. Temperatures will top out in the low to mid 60s under 
mostly sunny skies Tuesday afternoon, with overnight lows in the mid 
40s to low 50s.

As high pressure moves off the East Coast Wednesday, a deepening 
trough will begin digging across the Northern Plains and into the 
Great Lakes. This will serve to lift a warm front through the 
region, with above normal temperatures and chances for a few 
showers across Western NY late Wednesday afternoon. 

A strong cold front with a round of widespread showers is then 
progged to swing through from west to east late Wednesday night into 
Thursday. Temperatures will cool to below normal readings behind the 
main front Friday, with lingering shower chances as a weak secondary 
front crosses the region.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A northwest flow of cold air aloft will produce a wealth of lake 
enhanced stratocumulus tonight through Saturday. CIGS will generally 
run lower end VFR at lower elevations and some MVFR across higher 
terrain within more organized bands of lake effect clouds and 
showers. However...coverage of showers and intensity will be limited 
given the dry post-frontal airmass.

Outlook... 

Saturday night through Sunday night...MVFR restrictions possible in 
lake effect showers east of the lakes. 
Monday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate northwesterlies in its wake of the front will maintain 
Small Craft Advisory conditions on Lake Ontario through this 
evening. 

Winds will back to the west-southwest and increase on Saturday as 
another cold front approaches from the north. This will bring 
another round of Small Craft Advisory conditions to Lake Erie and 
Lake Ontario from midday Saturday through Sunday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LOZ030-
         042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...AR/Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...JM/RSH
LONG TERM...PP
AVIATION...AR/Hitchcock
MARINE...AR/Hitchcock