326 
FXUS64 KMEG 072332 AAA
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
632 PM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Thursday)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022

The dry air behind the front that passed last evening is slowly
making its way across the Mid-South. Currently, locations in
northwest Tennessee and northeast Arkansas are beginning to report
lower dewpoints. By tomorrow, expect the dry air to be in place
across the region, with high temperatures in the upper 60s to low
70s. 

Unfortunately, this cool and dry air will not last past the
weekend as an upper level trough pushes eastward out of the
United States, leaving the Mid-South in an upper level ridge
pattern starting Monday. In addition, winds will revert to a
southerly direction Monday, advecting higher moisture values back
into the region. This moisture return will start a slow build-up 
of our PWAT values, which have been climatologically low over the 
last few weeks. Moisture will not be the only variable slowly 
increasing throughout next week, as temperatures are expected to 
be in the low 80s Monday before increasing to the mid 80s by 
Wednesday. 

By Thursday, our weather pattern changes as an upper level trough
makes its way southeast across the Plains Region, bringing 
another cold front to the Mid-South. Guidances have continued to 
increase PWAT values ahead of the front as well as precipitation 
chances. If this trend continues, the region could see the first 
measurable rainfall in almost a month. For now, PWAT values look 
to be around 1.75-2 before frontal passage, so increased POPs 
starting Thursday. Behind the front, expect dry air and cooler 
temperatures. This upper level trough pattern will continue 
through next weekend, returning fall weather to the Mid-South.

ANS

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022

VFR, but will need to keep an eye on evening visibility at JBR 
from upstream agricultural burning earlier this this afternoon. 
Pressure rises from a reinforcing cold front will keep winds mixed
overnight, so not expecting visibilities to drop too much.

Status quo on Saturday. Deepening mixed layer from surface heating
should be offset by weakening pressure gradient for NNE winds to 
stay near persistence through the afternoon.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...PWB