211 
FXUS64 KMAF 072323
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
623 PM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday night)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022

No major changes to the short term forecast. The upper low situated 
over Baja California continues to advect moisture into the area, and 
storms will once again be likely this afternoon. Model soundings 
show decent PW values across Southeast New Mexico and down into the 
Davis Mountains, so some locally higher rainfall in these areas this 
afternoon may lead to some flooding. A shortwave will trek across 
the region today and this should provide enough lift for decent 
storm development. Similar to yesterday, the greatest precipitation 
chances will be in the higher terrain and SE New Mexico, however, 
thunderstorms will be possible across nearly all of the region this 
afternoon as this shortwave moves through. Increasing cloud cover 
through peak heating will prevent temperatures from breaking out of 
the 60s and 70s for much of the western half of the CWA, but the far 
eastern Basin may reach the low 80s. 

An upper trough will be traversing across the Great Lakes region 
today, and an associated backdoor cold front will reach our region 
by early Saturday morning. Storms are expected to continue into 
Saturday morning across SE New Mexico and the Basin with the aid of 
this front. The low over Baja will remain relatively stationary, 
continuing to advect moisture into the area. POP chances will expand 
across the west and down into the Big Bend for Saturday afternoon, 
where there will be ample moisture with decent lift for at least 
scattered thunderstorms. The greatest concern with these storms will 
continue to be locally heavy rainfall leading to flooding as well as 
some strong, gusty winds. Temperatures will finally fall below 
normal Saturday behind the front, with most of the region siting 
comfortably in the 70s. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022

Upper level low that has been sitting over Arizona will move to the 
east Sunday and into Monday. THe combination of the upper low and 
increasing moisture will make heavy rain and localized flooding the 
main concerns. Best chances for rain will be seen across southeast 
New Mexico and the Presidio Valley on Sunday and spread eastward 
towards the Permian Basin on Monday as the upper low moves to the 
east. Isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out as some shear and 
instability will be available, but not enough to warrant calls that 
the activity will be severe in nature. High temperatures on Sunday 
and Monday will be rain cooled and stick in the low to mid 70s with 
lows staying in the 50s to near 60.  

Trough will push out of the area on Tuesday and rain chances will 
diminish quickly and remain low for Wednesday. Highs rebound 
slightly for midweek and reach into the upper 70s to low 80s. Lows 
will continue to be near or just above normal in the 50s to low 60s. 
Late Wednesday and into Thursday, a front looks to move through the 
area as an upper low passes well north of the forecast area. Highs 
and lows for the end of the week should come down to or below normal 
after frontal passage. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 PM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022

Showers with isolated thunder have generally come to end. A brief
shower may cause minor impacts at MAF, INK, CNM, or HOB this 
evening before ending tonight. Winds remain primarily easterly as 
a cold front moves across the area tonight. MVFR ceilings may try 
to move into CNM and HOB tomorrow morning, but confidence is low 
in this outcome and will keep everything VFR for this TAF 
issuance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               58  78  58  81 /  30  10  10  40 
Carlsbad                 55  73  56  72 /  50  20  50  70 
Dryden                   60  79  61  81 /  10  10  10  20 
Fort Stockton            56  78  58  79 /  10  10  20  40 
Guadalupe Pass           52  66  53  64 /  30  30  60  80 
Hobbs                    55  71  55  73 /  50  20  30  50 
Marfa                    48  71  50  71 /  20  20  40  60 
Midland Intl Airport     58  75  59  78 /  30  10  10  50 
Odessa                   58  75  59  78 /  40  10  10  50 
Wink                     57  77  59  75 /  40  10  30  50 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...88
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...91