365 
FXUS64 KSHV 072316
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
616 PM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022

Dry and mostly seasonable conditions will remain in place across 
the Ark-La-Tex through the weekend as the next air mass gradually
shifts southward behind a weak frontal boundary. This area of 
high pressure will usher in stronger northeasterly surface flow 
and dew points in the lower 50s (and upper 40s) that reinforce 
pleasant outdoor conditions (and subsequent minimum temperatures 
in the upper 50s and lower 60s). This drier and cooler air mass 
will allow maximum temperatures by tomorrow afternoon to only 
reach the upper 70s and lower 80s. Slightly cooler than normal 
temperatures will also continue into tomorrow night with minimums
in the 50s and northeasterly winds waning as the center axis of 
the elongated surface ridge arrives over the area. /16/ 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022

Sfc ridge axis will be directly ovhd on Sunday and this will begin a 
warming trend that will continue through the middle of the upcoming 
work week. 

This ridge axis will continue to push south and east through our 
region with the end result being a return to southerly winds. It's 
these southerly winds that will allow our afternoon temperatures to 
return to the upper 80s to near 90 degrees both Tue and Wed of next 
week. What southerly flow will also do is allow for a steady uptick 
in low level moisture as we await the necessary dynamics upstream 
for rain chances. 

Taking a look at the upper levels, weak upper ridging across our 
region will flatten quickly as an upper trough across the Four 
Corners Region of the Country fills as it eject out into the Great 
Plains. This is where there are some discrepancies in the medium 
range progs as the GFS is quick to phase this Southwest U.S. trough 
with a very energetic longwave trough late Tuesday into Wednesday 
across the Plains. This solution would allow for more upper forcing 
across the Middle Red River Valley/Lower Miss Valley which in turn 
would allow for more moisture return ahead of a strong cold front, 
resulting in widespread rain chances late Wed into early Thu of next 
week. Last night's ECMWF run was much more conservative with not 
only the filling upper trough across the Southwest U.S. but never 
really phased this trough with the upstream trough coming out of the 
Intermountain West by the middle of next week. Well, the 12z ECMWF 
has come full circle now, looking suprisingly similar to the more 
aggressively phased GFS and therefore, brings much higher rain 
chances into our region Wed into Thu of next week. NBM guidance is 
weighted much more heavily to the more conservative 00z ECMWF and 
will therefore follow its lead for now seeing that these rain 
chances are still in Days 6 and 7 of the forecast. Consistency is 
the key to confidence and until we see that in the medium range, 
chance pops next Wed into Thu is the best route to take. 

Thanks for the coordination JAN...prelims to follow...13

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 PM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022

For the 08/00z TAFs...A weak frontal boundary appears to be
situated across far northeast Texas into far southeast Oklahoma
and then into southwest and southern Arkansas. Satellite imagery
is showing something we seem to not have seen in a while, clouds.
Seems the past few days have been nothing but SKC, however, now
the TAFs are full of OVC and BKN at or above 12kt ft. This trend
is expected to continue for all terminals through the remainder of
this TAF period. Nonetheless, VFR conditions will prevail. Winds
will remain out of the north and for the most part remain under 10
kts. The caveat is for some of our east Texas terminals where some
gusts around 15 kts could be possible on Saturday. /33/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  60  80  57  84 /   0   0   0   0 
MLU  58  78  52  82 /   0   0   0   0 
DEQ  53  76  50  83 /   0  10   0   0 
TXK  57  77  54  82 /   0   0   0   0 
ELD  52  75  49  80 /   0   0   0   0 
TYR  60  82  58  85 /   0   0   0   0 
GGG  58  81  55  84 /   0   0   0   0 
LFK  62  86  57  87 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...33