167 
FXUS65 KBOU 072107
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
307 PM MDT Fri Oct 7 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 255 PM MDT Fri Oct 7 2022

Low stratus over the plains is slowly breaking up and should 
continue to do so gradually through the afternoon and evening. It 
was enough to keep high temperatures very cool today, looks like 
they should only reach the upper 40s and lower 50s for the lower 
elevations. I only raised minimum temperatures a few degrees, but 
that may turn out to have been a mistake if the clouds clear out 
too much for tonight.

Cumulus are coming up over the mountains, which have remained 
mostly clear and should have built up decent instability today. 
The first weak showers of the afternoon are falling across Park 
County and the peaks of the Front Range. Water vapor satellite 
imagery shows the disturbance in the northwest flow aloft is on 
time to move overhead this evening and tonight, which should 
provide a little extra forcing. Still, we should be clear of 
precipitation under partly cloudy to mostly clear skies by 
morning.

Tomorrow, temperatures should warm back to near normal across the
plains under those mostly clear skies, with highs back in the 
60s. There looks to be enough instability and moisture over the 
high terrain another round of scattered showers with a few storms,
bringing light precipitation and few impacts.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 255 PM MDT Fri Oct 7 2022

Weak NW flow aloft will be in place Sunday, but free of any 
embedded disturbances resulting in a mostly dry day. 700mb 
temperatures warm a couple degrees from Saturday, so highs will be
slightly warmer with highs in the low 70s for the lower 
elevations. Temperatures rise into the 50s for the 
foothills/mountain valleys and mid 30s to 40s for the mountains. 
The warming trend continues for Monday with highs a few degrees 
warmer than Sunday. 

The details of the pattern become more uncertain Tuesday into 
Wednesday with some inconsistencies from model to model. WPC cluster 
analysis shows a general consensus on a trough moving southward 
from the northern plains Tues-Weds. The Canadian 
ens/deterministic is more out an outlier comparatively, still 
showing a tendency for split flow with the southern branch cutting
off into a closed low over the Great Basin. Ensemble means show 
an increase in moisture during this period, but at this point, no 
significant precipitation is supported/expected. Precip. chances 
increase slightly Tuesday evening into Wednesday. A dusting to 
light accumulation of snow is possible for the higher mountain 
areas. Also, enhanced westerly flow aloft will bring a period of 
breezy conditions over the higher terrain, mainly over the higher 
mountain ridge. Shouldn't be impactful in nature, but may see 
gusts 25-35 mph in the afternoon. By Wednesday a cold front moves 
through bringing cooler temperatures across the region. 

Late week, there is general agreement (except the Canadian) towards 
a ridge aloft building in from the west. This will support a warming 
and drying trend. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1203 AM MDT Fri Oct 7 2022

Expect LIFR to IFR conditions due to low clouds to persist this 
afternoon, and ILS conditions until at least tomorrow morning.
Conditions should start to gradually improve this evening, and VFR
are possible by tomorrow afternoon. Light northeasterly winds 
this morning should come around easterly to southeasterly by this 
evening, then may turn towards weak drainage overnight, and 
finally back northeasterly by tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EJD
LONG TERM...Mensch
AVIATION...EJD