878 
FXUS64 KMOB 072047
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
347 PM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022

The Near Term remains dry, with a reinforcing cold front moving 
across the Southeast later tonight into Saturday morning in 
response to upper level shortwave energy moving through the zonal 
upper flow over the Southeast. A cooler, drier airmass moves over 
the forecast area behind the front, dropping above normal 
temperatures topping out in the mid to upper 80s this afternoon to
high temperatures in the upper 70s to around 80 northwest of 
I-65, low to mid 80s south on Saturday. With the colder air behind
the front moving over the forecast area later tonight, 
temperatures are expected to be a bit warmer than last night. 
Upper 50s to low 60s expected. The airmass ahead of the front is 
dry (precipitable h20 values of 1.0" or less), with nary a shower 
expected. 
/16 
&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Monday night)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022

A weak upper ridge will build over the Lower Mississippi River 
Valley and Southeast, with below seasonal temperatures rebounding 
back to near seasonal norms through the period. High temperatures 
in the mid 70s to low 80s Sunday rise to around 80 to low 80s on 
Monday. Low temperatures Saturday night in the mid 40s north of 
Highway 84 to around 50 along and south of I-10 rise to the low 
50s north of Highway 84 to upper 50s closer to the coast Monday 
night. The Short Term remains dry, but as low level flow shifts 
from northerly to easterly by Tuesday, moisture begins to return 
to the forecast area. /16

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022
 
Upper level ridging continues to build over the eastern Conus into
mid week, with temperatures over the forecast area rising back to
well above seasonal norms by Thursday. As a digging upper trough 
over the western Conus swings east, moving over the Southeast
Thursday/Thursday night, a cold front moves over the forecast area
Thursday in response. Timing of the front varies in the guidance,
with the slower ECMWF allowing for more instability to develop of
the front. Add in a modest 40kt low level jet and mid/upper level
jet support, and a small possibility of strong to marginally 
severe storms Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening exists. The
faster GFS limits the better instability along with keeping the 
better upper support north of the forecast area. Will need to 
monitor. Temperatures well below seasonal norms return Friday 
behind the front. 
/16

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 318 PM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022
Light and variable flow will become moderate to strong offshore 
behind a front moving over area waters later tonight into Saturday
morning. An SC.Y may needed, if only for gusts to 25-30kts 
Saturday night on. Surface high pressure passes north of area 
waters Monday night into Tuesday, shifting Winds to easterly along
with easing winds to light to moderate.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      62  85  53  80  53  83  55  86 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0 
Pensacola   66  85  57  81  57  83  61  85 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0 
Destin      67  87  60  83  61  85  64  86 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0 
Evergreen   57  83  49  78  46  81  53  87 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0 
Waynesboro  57  78  48  74  48  78  50  83 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0 
Camden      57  78  46  74  46  79  51  84 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0 
Crestview   61  85  51  81  51  84  57  87 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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