464 
FXUS61 KALY 072016
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
416 PM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Much cooler temperatures can be expected tonight as a result of the 
cold frontal passage from this afternoon. An isolated shower or two 
cannot be ruled out the remainder of the late afternoon into the 
evening, though the probability of occurrence decreases 
significantly after sunset. Dry, cool, and breezy conditions can be 
expected this weekend throughout much of the area, though some 
scattered lake effect showers in the western Adirondacks will 
persist late Saturday through Sunday. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 415 PM EDT...The aforementioned, northeasterly 
progressing cold front continues to intrude further into the 
region, causing temperatures to drop in the Capital District and
continue dropping in the Adirondacks. Scattered showers and 
gusty winds can be expected the rest of the afternoon/evening as
the passage nears completion after sunset.

Broad upper level troughing situated across southeast Canada and the 
Great Lakes region has deepened throughout the day today, forcing an 
upper level jet through the region with an influx of colder 
temperatures through much of the northeast. This new, cool airmass 
will bring mostly dry conditions tonight, though some scattered 
showers can be expected especially in the Adirondacks where 
influences from moisture advection off Lake Ontario could dominate. 

Gusty winds will aid in temperatures feeling fairly cool throughout 
the region this evening. Gust should begin to decrease after sunset, 
but will remain around 5-10+ mph throughout the night before 
increasing after sunrise tomorrow. Expected low temperatures look to 
range from the upper 30s to low 40s throughout the Hudson 
Valley while higher elevations can expect upper 20s to mid
30s. The winds, clouds and dry low-level environment should
prevent frost formation where the growing season continues. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Tomorrow...A chilly air mass will open the weekend with the mid
and upper level trough over the Great Lakes Region, Midwest 
Northeast and southeast Canada. H850 temps will be in the 0C to -5C
range to start the day. The low to mid level flow veers to the 
northwest to start the day with light lake effect showers mainly 
west of the region over central NY. Though some lake effect 
clouds will persist south and west of the Capital Region in the 
cyclonic flow over the western Adirondacks, Mohawk Valley and 
eastern Catskills. Also, some mid and high clouds will be 
diminishing to the south and east with a weak wave passing near
southeast New England that moved along the old front. Partly to
mostly cloudy conditions will start the day but an increase 
partly to mostly sunny conditions especially from the Hudson 
River Valley eastward is expected for the afternoon with some 
upslope clouds possible along the western New England higher 
terrain. 

The west to northwest winds will continue at 10 to 15 mph with
some gusts 20-25 mph in the northern Catskills/Greater Capital 
Region into the northern Taconics and Berkshires due to 
funneling and some downsloping. The low to mid-level flow veers 
more to the west to southwest late in the day as some lake 
effect showers may impact the western Adirondacks late in the 
afternoon. We kept some slight and low chance PoPs in north of 
Old Forge. Max temps were accepted close to GFS/NBM with highs 
about 5 to 10 degrees below normal with 40s over the mtns, and 
lower to mid 50s in the valleys with some upper 50s in the mid 
Hudson Valley.

Saturday Night... High pressure will attempt to ridge in from
the Ohio Valley/Mid Atlantic Region, as a cold front is slowly
moving southeast with the amplifying mid and upper level trough 
east of Hudson Bay and over Quebec. Temps on the cool/chilly 
side for early October are expected again. The winds will likely
go light and the skies will be clearer south and east of the 
Adirondacks. It is not an ideal radiational cooling environment 
but some patchy to localized areas of frost may form where the 
growing season continues outside the Mohawk and Hudson River 
Valleys over the higher terrain. We added patchy frost with a 
bit more coverage this forecast cycle. We may need a frost 
advisory if the winds go light to calm and the skies do stay 
clear/mostly clear. We will keep mention in the HWO. Meanwhile, 
a piece of short-wave associated with the broad long-wave trough
will bring some lake effect showers into northern Herkimer and 
Hamilton Counties. A few wet snow flakes may mix Lake induced 
instability class looks conditional from the NAM. The low-level 
flow becomes west/southwest. Lows will be in the mid and upper 
30s in many locations with pockets of lower 30s in the sheltered
valleys/higher terrain.

Sunday...A mid and upper level disturbance passes north of the
forecast area with the cold front stalling over northern New
England and northern NY. The mid level flow briefly becomes
flatter or near zonal.  The boundary layer flow will allow for 
occasional lake effect showers especially over the western and 
southern Adirondacks. Some of the light showers may spread into 
the Lake George Region. The air mass modifies slightly with 850 
hPa temps warming back to 0C to +3C. Mostly cloudy/cloudy 
conditions will persist north of the I-90 corridor over the 
northern zones, and partly sunny/mostly sunny conditions south 
and east. Temps will only improve slightly and will still be a 
little below normal. Breezy west wind will continue. Highs will 
range from upper 50s to lower 60s in the valley areas and 40s to
mid 50s over the hills and mtns. 

Sunday Night...Another weak short-wave impulse rotates around
the mid and upper level trough and will bring some clouds and
few showers to the Adirondacks, western Mohawk Valley and the
Lake George Region. The old cold front may be near the
Adirondacks and central VT. The low-level moisture is not that
impressive.  The skies will be partly cloudy and mainly dry 
conditions are expected from the Greater Capital Region south 
and east. Lows will be in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Some patchy 
frost may occur in the higher terrain if the winds decouple and 
the skies stay clear in a few spots. 

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
After a warming trend Tuesday through Thursday of the upcoming work 
week, a full latitude trough develops over the Central CONUS and 
closes off before gradually sliding eastward towards the Northeast. 
This feature will be the focus of the long term period. The latest 
12 UTC guidance has slowed down the time of arrival of the 
associated surface cold front in comparison to previous model runs 
so the main update to this forecast is to delay chance and likely 
POPs to Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Read on for details.

We start off the period on Monday (Columbus/Indigenous Peoples' Day) 
with a thermal gradient stalled over the region and a weak shortwave 
pushing through the Northeast. As a vort max at the bottom of the 
trough swings through during the day, westerly flow and cool air 
advection down the long fetch of Lake Ontario looks to result in 
enough of a delta-T gradient to produce some lake effect showers. 
Guidance suggests this combined with enhance lift from cyclonic 
vorticity advection ahead of the incoming shortwave could allow the 
showers to extend inland enough to reach into our southern 
Adirondack and western Mohawk Valley areas. Maintained slight chance 
POPs into these areas. Kept the rest of the region dry. Otherwise, 
expecting partly to mostly cloudy skies for the Monday holiday due 
to some enhanced lake moisture with seasonable temperatures in the 
upper 50s to low 60s.

The stalled boundary from Monday lifts northward as a warm front 
Tuesday into Wednesday once the upstream ridge axis pushes through. 
This will allow a much warm air mass to advect into the Northeast. 
Expect a warming trend through the middle part of the week with 
temperatures climbing well into the 60s to potentially even touching 
the 70 degree by Thursday. While radiational cooling Monday night 
will lead to a seasonably cool night with lows in the 30s to low 
40s, overnight lows will also trend milder through the week with 
lows only in the 40s for much of the region with the valley possibly 
only dropping into the low 50s Wed night.

Thursday into Friday will feature the main forecast challenge of the 
upcoming long term as a full latitude trough develops in the Central 
Plains and closes off before very gradually tracking eastward. The 
latest 12 UTC has trended much slower compared to 00 UTC guidance 
which is likely due to the fact that there is good model consensus 
for the trough to close off. In fact, the 12 UTC ECWMF has trended 
nearly 24 hours slower with the time of arrival of the cold front 
compared to the 00 UTC run. Due to the trough closing off, the 
downstream ridging over the Northeast amplifies further with the sfc 
high pressure off the New England coast building to ~1025-1030hPa in 
response. As a result, the pressure gradient between these two 
features tightens over the Northeast which will likely lead to 
strong southerly winds for Thursday. We increased sustained winds 
and wind gusts compared to the NBM output and also increased high 
temperatures (closer to the NBM 75th percentile guidance) as more of 
Thursday appears dry which enhances the amount of time we will stay 
in the warm sector. Given the anomalously warm temperatures ahead of 
the boundary and very impressive dynamics, SPC's Day 4-8 discussion 
has mentioned the potential for thunderstorms over the region for 
Thursday. Still uncertainty on the exact timing and track of the sfc 
cold front but we will keep an eye on trends and potential for any 
instability to develop.

Behind the cold front and trough axis, a much colder air mas will 
track into the Northeast just in time for the weekend. Depending on 
the wind orientation, some lake effect showers could form.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front will track southeast across the TAF sites through 
this afternoon, with a brisk northwest wind and some lake 
effect clouds developing in its wake.

The cold front should track through KGFL, KALB and KPSF by 20Z,
and KPOU by 21Z/Fri. A period of MVFR Cigs, and some light
showers will be possible with and just behind the front at KGFL,
KALB and KPSF.

In the wake of the front, mainly VFR Cigs are expected tonight,
however occasional MVFR Cigs could occur, especially at KPSF
where a period of low MVFR Cigs is possible. Any MVFR Cigs 
should lift to VFR between 13Z-15Z/Sat, with mainly VFR 
conditions expected thereafter.

Winds will become west to northwest this afternoon, and increase
to 8-15 KT, with some gusts up to 25 KT possible, especially at
KALB and KPSF. Winds will become northwest to north tonight at
8-12 KT, with similar winds expected through midday Saturday.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Columbus Day: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Gant/Wasula
NEAR TERM...Gant/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...Speciale
AVIATION...KL