309 
FXUS61 KBTV 071958
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
358 PM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will continue across the region tonight,
with temperatures dropping into 30s overnight. Scattered 
showers and breezy winds diminish late tonight, followed by a 
cool and mainly dry day on Saturday. More showers arrive on 
Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 354 PM EDT Friday...A cold front is currently trekking through
the forecast area from west to east bringing scattered rain showers,
isolated thunderstorms, and breezy west winds. Ahead of the cold
front, we see current temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s across
far eastern Vermont, while temperatures behind the front have fallen
into the mid/low 50s across northern New York. Temperatures will
continue to fall through the evening hours with overnight lows
dropping into the 30s. Patchy frost is possible across portions of
the Saint Lawrence Valley overnight, especially where clouds clear,
but sustained northwest winds of 5-10 mph should help limit the
coverage. Otherwise, shower activity should wane shortly after
sunset as drier air advects into the region. West to northwest winds
will remain breezy until late tonight, diminishing after midnight.
See the Marine section for details regarding a Lake Wind Advisory.
For the elevated terrain of the Adirondacks and Green Mountains,
drizzle/freezing drizzle is possible through the overnight hours as
moisture becomes trapped below dry air aloft. However, dry
conditions are expected by morning.

By Saturday, surface high pressure will take hold despite a final
shortwave passage aloft. This will result in crisp, cool, and clear
weather for Saturday. High temperatures will only be in the mid 40s
to low 50s, though skies should be mostly sunny. Overnight
temperatures Saturday into Sunday will be slightly more mild (with
the exception of eastern Vermont) due to increasing southwest winds.
Lows will range from the low 30s to low 40s. In addition, a lake
response is expected downwind of Lake Ontario early Sunday morning,
with a mix of rain/snow showers for portions of Saint Lawrence
County and the Adirondacks. Little to no accumulation expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 354 PM EDT Friday...Scattered showers are expected for the
latter half of the weekend as an upper shortwave pushing by to our
north helps push a cold front across the region. The bulk of the
precipitation will occur over the northern mountains, as well as
east of Lake Ontario as we continue to see west/southwest flow over
the relatively warm lake waters. Precipitation amounts will be
fairly light, with most areas seeing less than a quarter of an inch.
Cold air advection and steepening lapse rates will make for a breezy
day. Much of the day will be fairly cloudy as well, even for those
areas that don't see much in the way of shower activity.
Precipitation and clouds will wane overnight Sunday night. Highs
Sunday will range from the upper 40s to the mid 50s, followed by
lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 354 PM EDT Friday...The front will settle to our south Monday,
with one last upper shortwave trough to scoot across the region.
That will be enough to fire up some more showers, mainly over the
higher terrain and east of Lake Ontario. Otherwise, we'll remain dry
through at least mid week as high pressure builds over the region.
Precipitation chances will then increase toward the end of the week
as an upper low strengthens over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. The
flow will progressively become amplified late Wednesday through
Thursday, with increasing south/southwest flow ahead of an
approaching frontal boundary and surface low. The latest model
guidance has slowed the timing of the front and its associated
precipitation, and feel this trend is warranted given the front is
expected to become nearly parallel to the increasingly south-
oriented flow. Model solutions/timing still vary, but for now the
consensus seems to show a late Thursday/Thursday night frontal
passage, though some guidance keeps our area dry until the weekend.
Regardless, other than increasing precipitation chances for late
week, we'll also see a warming trend through the week as well.
Monday will be coldest of the period with highs in the lower/mid
50s, but expect highs to be well into the 60s by Wednesday/Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18Z Saturday...Currently a mix of VFR and MVFR
conditions across the forecast area as a cold front passes from
west to east. While VFR conditions exist ahead of the front,
ceilings are lowering to MVFR behind the front. This trend will
continue from west to east through the evening hours. IFR cigs 
may linger at SLK overnight as moisture is trapped below 
subsidence inversion while drier air moves in aloft. Winds
will become westerly in the wake of the front, increasing to
10-15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Gusts will die down after
00z. 


Outlook...

Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Columbus Day: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.MARINE...
A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect this afternoon and evening for
sustained west/northwest winds of 20-30 knots across the broad
lake. Winds will diminish late tonight, especially after
midnight.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hammond/Taber
NEAR TERM...Hammond
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Hammond
MARINE...Hammond