617 
FXUS62 KTAE 071856
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
256 PM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022

Temperatures through the overnight will be milder than the previous 
few evenings due to high clouds moving into our area. Across the 
region, expect lows in the upper 50's to low 60's throughout the 
evening. A shortwave within a broad eastern trough will push a dry 
cold front into our region on Saturday, slightly cooling 
temperatures in the northwest of our CWA with highs in the low to 
mid 80's, accompanied by temperatures in the upper 80's located in 
the southeast ahead of the front. Following the frontal passage, a 
dry airmass will spread into the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022

Another shot of dry air is forecast to push into the region over the 
short term period in the wake of a dry cold front passing through on 
Saturday. Northerly winds will continue Sunday before becoming more 
northeasterly Sunday night as surface high pressure settles over the 
Apalachians. High temperatures on Sunday are forecast in the low to 
mid 80s with low temperatures overnight in the upper 40s to upper 
50s. The drier air pouring into the region will keep an elevated 
fire danger in place for Sunday with relative humidity dropping into 
the low 20% to 35% range in the afternoon. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022

A fairly robust moistening trend is forecast to start out the work 
week as surface winds become more easterly with high pressure 
sliding off to the northeast. Through early part of the week, deep 
tropical moisture from Tropical Storm Julia is forecast to move into 
the Bay of Campeche and western Gulf, and some of this moisture is 
forecast to push northeastward towards the area within the 
southwesterly mid-level steering flow. As a result, rain chances 
will begin to return for the latter half of the week, spreading 
northward from the Gulf. A strong trough is then forecast to push 
southward across the southern Plains, dragging a quickly moving 
stronger cold front along with it. This front is forecast to push 
through our region sometime Thursday night into Friday. Cooler and 
drier conditions are once again on tap in the wake of this front. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 133 PM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022

Slightly stronger winds are expected by late Saturday morning
behind a passing cold front. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
prevail at all terminals through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022

A dry cold front is forecast to push across the waters tomorrow with 
breezy northerly winds in its wake. Northerly winds will gradually 
become easterly and eventually southeasterly throughout the week. 
Periods of cautionary conditions are expected during the overnight 
and early morning hours throughout the upcoming week. 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022

Dry conditions are expected to continue through the weekend into 
early next week across the area. A dry cold front will cross the 
region on Thursday, bringing only a slight increase in low-level 
moisture, but also an increase in winds. Dispersions will be quite 
high on Saturday afternoon. By Sunday, humidity will fall once 
again, along with winds. There will increased fire danger both days, 
despite not reaching Red Flag criteria.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022

No appreciable rainfall is expected over the next week. Therefore, 
there are no hydrology concerns at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   87  61  87  58 /   0   0   0   0 
Panama City   86  64  86  59 /   0   0   0   0 
Dothan        88  60  84  52 /   0   0   0   0 
Albany        87  59  85  52 /   0   0   0   0 
Valdosta      87  58  87  57 /   0   0   0   0 
Cross City    87  58  88  59 /   0   0   0   0 
Apalachicola  83  64  85  62 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Worster
SHORT TERM...Merrifield
LONG TERM....Merrifield
AVIATION...Camp
MARINE...Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...Camp
HYDROLOGY...Scholl