294 
FXUS61 KBUF 071816
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
216 PM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Below average temperatures will be in place through the weekend. A 
few light, widely scattered lake effect showers will be found 
southeast of Lake Ontario and Lake Erie through Saturday with 
limited coverage. Lake effect rain showers will increase in coverage 
east of the lakes later Saturday night and Sunday as a cold front 
approaches from the north and brings an increase in moisture.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Radar imagery showing a few narrow bands of lake enhanced showers 
east of Lake Ontario early this afternoon as cold air aloft deepens 
behind the departing cold front. Most of the showers through the 
rest of the day will be east of Lake Ontario. Meanwhile farther 
west, there are just a few isolated light sprinkles falling out of 
the stratocumulus deck across Western NY off Lake Erie and the west 
end of Lake Ontario. 

A strong cold front will continue to exit stage right across New 
England this afternoon. Much cooler air will pour into the region in 
the wake of the front, with 850MB temps bottoming out around -4C 
late tonight and Saturday morning. The airmass is cold, but also 
quite dry and this will greatly limit the lake response through 
Saturday.

A northwest flow will direct what little lake effect develops to the 
southeast of the lakes. Off Lake Erie, this will mainly target the 
higher terrain of the western Southern Tier with some added ascent 
from upslope flow. Off Lake Ontario, this will mainly target areas 
along the south shore of the lake from the Niagara/Orleans county 
shoreline east across Rochester to Oswego County, and then inland 
across the western Finger Lakes. Coverage of lake effect showers 
will remain scattered at best. While 850MB temps drop to around -4C 
and surface temperatures drop to the mid 30s across the higher 
terrain of the western Southern Tier, forecast soundings suggest the 
cloud bearing layer will be too warm to introduce any ice nuclei, 
keeping ptype mainly liquid with very little potential for wet snow 
to mix in.

Most, if not all of the limited lake response will end off Lake Erie 
by midday Saturday. Off Lake Ontario, a band of scattered showers 
will move north from Oswego County towards Watertown during the mid 
to late afternoon as boundary layer flow backs to the southwest 
ahead of an approaching cold front.

Low temperatures tonight will range from the lower 40s on the 
immediate lakeshores to the 30s inland, with mid 30s across the 
interior Southern Tier and low 30s for the North Country. Most areas 
will stay too cloudy and breezy for frost. The one exception may be 
across the North Country where partial clearing may allow for patchy 
frost. Highs Saturday will reach the low to mid 50s for lower 
elevations and mid to upper 40s on the hills.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Persistent longwave trough remains in place through all but the very 
tail end of the period. Chilly air within this trough will support 
some early season lake effect showers east of both lakes Saturday 
night into Sunday, especially across the North Country off Lake 
Ontario where a bit more synoptic moisture will accompany an 
environment with a cap of that appears it may now reach 8-10kft, 
which is even more favorable than previous. Capped PoPs at high 
likely in this area for plain rain showers as does not look cold 
enough aloft to support even any wet snow at this point. PoPs will 
need to be raised to Categorical off Lake Ontario once a more exact 
location of the lake effect activity is realized. Will keep Chc PoPs 
in place E-NE of Lake Erie. GEM remains the guidance of choice, 
although some other guidance is also now starting to latch onto 
this. Half inch plus of rain still looks plausible across the Tug 
Hill and western Dacks Saturday night through Sunday. 

A pair of shortwaves will then push a weak cold front through the 
region Sunday night and Monday. There may a few showers just ahead 
of the front Sunday night, with still the chance for a few showers 
Monday as the next shortwave rotates just south of our area through 
the base of the main upper level trough. Some of this shower 
activity will also be aided by residual lake driven convection east 
of Lake Ontario Sunday night, that will then gradually sink south of 
Lake Ontario for Monday as the boundary does the same. Otherwise, 
conditions may start to improve for the second half of Monday across 
the North Country, however it will likely take until Monday night 
for dry weather across the entire region as high pressure centered 
over the Mid Atlantic region is finally able to ridge over the 
region providing us with fair dry weather Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Dry and seasonable weather for Tuesday and Tuesday night as a 
progressive mid-level ridge shifts from the Great Lakes to New 
England. Temperatures will top out in the low to mid 60s under 
mostly sunny skies Tuesday afternoon, with overnight lows in the mid 
40s to low 50s.

As high pressure moves off the East Coast Wednesday, a deepening 
trough will begin digging across the Northern Plains and into the 
Great Lakes. This will serve to lift a warm front through the 
region, with above normal temperatures and chances for a few 
showers across Western NY late Wednesday afternoon. 

A strong cold front with a round of widespread showers is then 
progged to swing through from west to east late Wednesday night into 
Thursday. Temperatures will cool to below normal readings behind the 
main front Friday, with lingering shower chances as a weak secondary 
front crosses the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A northwest flow of cold air aloft will produce a wealth of lake 
enhanced stratocumulus this afternoon through tonight. CIGS will 
generally run lower end VFR at lower elevations and MVFR across 
higher terrain and in more organized bands of lake effect clouds. 

A few lake effect showers will continue east of Lake Ontario this 
afternoon. Widely scattered lake effect showers will then continue 
southeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario tonight through Saturday, 
but with limited coverage and intensity given the dry post-frontal 
airmass.

Outlook... 

Saturday night through Sunday night...MVFR restrictions possible in 
lake effect showers east of the lakes. 
Monday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A strong cold front will move east into New England this afternoon, 
with moderate northwesterlies in its wake. This will maintain Small 
Craft Advisory conditions on Lake Ontario through this evening. 
Northwest winds will gradually diminish on Lake Erie through the 
afternoon, and the fetch will decrease as flow becomes northwest. 
This will allow waves to gradually diminish through this afternoon.

Winds will back to the west-southwest and increase on Saturday as a 
cold front approaches from the north. This will bring another round 
of Small Craft Advisory conditions to Lake Erie and Lake Ontario 
from midday Saturday through Sunday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LOZ030-
         042.
         Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for 
         LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...JM/RSH
LONG TERM...PP
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock