082 
FXUS63 KILX 071808
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
108 PM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022

Much cooler weather will be on tap across central Illinois today
with high temperatures only reaching the upper 50s and lower 60s.
As skies clear and winds diminish, low temperatures tonight will
dip into the lower to middle 30s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1022 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022

Late this morning, north winds are in place across central
Illinois in the wake of a cold front that passed through the 
region yesterday. Temperatures are on track to top out in the mid 
to upper 50s north of I-72 and upper 50s to lower 60s south. Lake 
effect showers are in place across NE Illinois with low level 
convergence noted near the IL/IN state line including portions of 
east central Illinois. Couldn't rule out a few light showers or 
sprinkles, especially in Vermilion County. Otherwise, the going 
forecast is on track with no significant updates needed.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022

A sharply cooler airmass is flowing into central Illinois early
this morning in the wake of a strong cold front settling southward
into the Ohio River Valley. Partly cloudy skies are presently
noted: however, a large area of mid-level cloudiness over Iowa
will push eastward and result in a partly to mostly cloudy start
to the day everywhere north of the I-70 corridor. Once these
clouds depart toward midday, much of the KILX CWA will experience
a mostly sunny afternoon. The exception will be locations
along/east of I-57 and north of I-70 where a fetch of moisture
flowing off southern Lake Michigan will keep conditions partly to
mostly cloudy. High temperatures will range from the middle 50s
north of a Rushville to Bloomington line...to the middle 60s far
southeast around Lawrenceville. High pressure will settle southward
into the region tonight, resulting in clearing skies and diminishing
winds. This will allow excellent radiational cooling and set the 
stage for widespread frost/freeze conditions. Given the dry
airmass, lowered numeric guidance by a couple of degrees,
resulting in overnight lows at or below freezing everywhere north
of I-70. Some favored low-lying spots may even dip into the upper
20s. As a result, have expanded the Freeze Watch to include all
locations north of I-70...and issued a Frost Advisory for points
south. 

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022

Chilly weather will continue into Saturday, with frost once again
likely Saturday night. Given surface ridge axis across the Ohio
River Valley, the coldest readings in the lower to middle 30s will
be noted across the E/SE CWA...with slightly warmer upper 30s
across the Illinois River Valley where return flow will be more
prevalent.

As the upper-level trough responsible for the cold-snap pivots
northeastward across Quebec and is replaced by ridging,
temperatures will rapidly warm early next week. Highs will reach
the upper 60s and lower 70s by Sunday...then will soar well into
the 70s and perhaps reach the 80-degree mark in some spots by
Tuesday. After that, another upper trough embedded within the
progressive flow pattern will approach from the
northwest...triggering showers by Wednesday/Thursday. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 108 PM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022

Modest north winds will prevail the rest of the daytime hours
today, then winds will become light and variable late this 
evening and overnight as a ridge of high pressure moves over the 
region. Lake effect showers and cloud cover streaming south from 
Lake Michigan should stay east of CMI, but will have to monitor 
for the potential of MVFR ceilings reaching the airport. Otherwise
expect VFR conditions to prevail through the period.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Watch from 1 AM CDT Saturday through Saturday morning for 
ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063.

Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for ILZ066>068-
071>073.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Deubelbeiss
SYNOPSIS...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Deubelbeiss