142 
FXUS62 KILM 071716
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
114 PM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
One final day of warm temperatures is expected today. A dry cold
front will move offshore late tonight. High pressure will 
bring cooler temperatures and continued dry weather through at 
least the middle of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Cancelled the coastal flood advisory an hour early as the lower
Cape Fear peaked at about 5.3ft last hour. No other changes to
the forecast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
An upper disturbance will move quickly over the Great Lakes today 
and across New England tonight. Confluent upper level flow behind 
this disturbance will support 1032 mb surface high pressure moving 
eastward across the Plains states. At the leading edge of these 
pressure rises is a cold front that should move through the eastern 
Carolinas late tonight and offshore before daybreak Saturday. 
Westerly flow both ahead of and behind the front will preclude any 
significant moisture advection from the Gulf or Atlantic, 
maintaining mainly clear skies and a dry forecast.

High temps today should reach 81-84, except some upper 70s on 
the beaches where a weak afternoon seabreeze should develop. 
While this may be the last 80s we see for several days, local 
climate history suggests we'll likely continue to record 80+ 
degree temps at least occasionally into early November. 
Tonight's lows should fall to 55-60, warmest at the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Cooler temps expected Saturday in the wake of the cold front 
under weak CAA as sfc high pressure builds in from the 
NW...highs mainly in the mid 70s with lows Saturday night 
ranging from the upr 40s to mid 50s. Expect mostly clear skies 
well inland with more cloud cover closer to the coast where 
moisture up to ~800 mb will be higher. Mid-level air remains 
very dry throughout the whole area, however.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Still forecasting dry weather for the entirety of the long term
period as sfc high pressure builds in from the NW and remains 
in the vicinity. If there is any rain it will come Monday into 
Monday night with an approaching mid-level shortwave trough, but
will maintain a dry forecast for now with the bulk of guidance 
still suggesting any rain stays offshore, and dry mid-level air
is too difficult to overcome. Little change in temps through 
the period...highs ranging through the 70s each day; slightly 
rising through the week.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR with clear skies through the period. FM groups only really 
needed to address wind direction changes assoc with a cold frontal 
passage prior to daybreak Saturday. 

Extended Outlook...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight:
Light westerly winds this morning will back around to the south
or southwest this afternoon as a weak seabreeze develops. 
Westerly winds should develop again late tonight as a dry cold 
front reaches the coast just before daybreak Saturday. Seas 
should average 1-2 feet in height through tonight primarily in a
10 second easterly swell.

Saturday Through Tuesday:
No headlines anticipated this period. NE flow takes shape
Saturday following the cold fropa Friday night, persisting all
the way into Tuesday with speeds mainly in the 10-20 kt range. 
1-2 ft seas Saturday increase to 2-4 ft Sunday through Tuesday 
as 5 sec wind waves grow slightly despite any swell component 
being very weak.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...MBB