099 
FXUS63 KFGF 071437
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
937 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 935 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022

The 1036 surface high continues to press further south, currently
centered in the southern valley/NE South Dakota. A thick stratus
deck remains over the far eastern tier of counties with satellite
observations indicating some weak lake effect convection inducing
some isolated flurries. Impacts are expected to remain low from
these flurries as air temperature continues to slowly increase
with increasing warm air advection this afternoon.

UPDATE Issued at 701 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022

High pressure remains over Devils Lake region. Underneath high
widespread lows 15 to 20. Low to mid 20s into the RRV. Clouds
holding and only every so slowly clearing south/southeast thru
MN....with clearing line Baudette to west of Detroit lakes to near
Fergus Falls. Secondary cloud area that was over NE ND dropping
south and now into Fargo. Cloudy areas overnight saw temps stay
above freezing. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 252 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022

High pressure at 07z over Devils Lake. Skies clear over E ND with
light winds and radiational cooling allowing temps to drop into
the 20s and a few teens. The clouds over the eastern fcst area
have been slowly clearing from the north with west edge of clouds
at 730z from Warroad to west of Mahnomen to Wahpeton. In the cloud
areas temps were above 32F. No evidence of any precipitation in
the cloud area so did remove the very low pops we had going
downstream of Lake of the Woods thru Fri AM.  

Clouds will continue to gradually clear this morning and for the
rest of the area expect a sunny day with winds turning more
westerly this aftn with speeds in the 5 to 15 mph range, though
locally 20 mph in the Devils Lake basin. Highs today in the mid
40s to around 50. 

High pressure to our southeast tonight so looks to be not as cool
except for west central MN where it will be clear and winds
lightest and they will likely drop colder early Saturday morning than
they will be this morning with lows by Sat AM around 32 Fergus
Falls/Wadena areas. 

Short wave dropping south-southeast across Manitoba into NW
Minnesota Saturday will bring some high/mid clouds with it
spreading north to south. Look for warmer temps with highs into
the 60s most areas along with a west wind 10 to 15 mph.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 252 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022

Minimal impacts expected in the extended time frame with seasonal 
conditions anticipated as model consensus and guidance remains in 
good agreement with the overall synoptic pattern across North 
America. Will see the ridging in the west and trough in the east 
persist with northwest flow aloft across the region with short wave 
passage expected Saturday night into Sunday morning and then again 
on Tuesday night into Wednesday. The first wave remains the weaker 
one with just a 15 to 25 percent chance of a shower across the 
northern valley and NW MN with minimal cold advection. The second 
wave is progged to be much stronger with a larger footprint with the 
best moisture and lift coming together the farther east you are. 
Will maintain the 15 to 25 percent chance with the potential for 
that to increase if the wave slows down and allows moisture return 
to occur further west. 

Temps for the period will be near normal with lows in the 30s and 
40s with most areas and nights above freezing. Highs will be a bit 
more variable as temps start out around 60 on Sunday then warm to 
mid 60s Monday and into the low and mid 70s for Tuesday before 
falling into the 50s for Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 701 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022

Clearing timing for Bemidji TAF site is the main uncertanity. It
looks like should be scattering out by 17z or so. Clouds in area
from Baudette to Fergus Falls are in the lower VFR range
(4000-5000 ft agl). Clear in E ND except Fargo area where a cloud
patch is moving through at 12z. Winds light northwest. Winds to
turn more west as the day progresses, with increase in speed more
noticable in NE ND with speeds 15 kts or so this aftn in DVL basin
and NE ND. VFR conditions all areas into tonight. 

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Perroux
SHORT TERM...Riddle
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...Riddle