904 
FXUS61 KCLE 071402
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1002 AM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in from the west across the Ohio Valley
through this weekend and to the mid-Atlantic region by Monday. 
A weak front will cross the Great Lakes on Monday. High 
pressure will back in on Tuesday before a warm front lifts north
across the area on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
9:30 AM Update...
Only a minor update made to sky cover and PoPs for today and
tonight. Slightly increased PoPs for tonight based on latest
hi-res guidance and greatly increased sky cover based on latest
satellite imagery and model guidance.

Previous Discussion...
A cold front continues through the forecast area this morning, 
dropping temperatures into the 50s and shifting winds to the 
northwest across the area. Rain and lower clouds are largely 
occurring behind the front, as both better moisture and lift are
present and better thermodynamics are in place with some lake 
induced instability and moisture. Certainly will not be a wash 
out across the area this morning, but suspect that most of the 
northern counties will get a few hundredths of rain as a band of
rain moves through the forecast area and have restored some 
higher PoPs to the forecast. As the front pulls away from the 
area, rain will become more scattered today and more tied to 
lake effect processes as cold air advection surges in with a 
fetch across a warm Lake Erie in the lower 60s. Therefore, have 
some chance PoPs for today, especially for NE OH and NW PA. Rays
will be hard to come by today with lake clouds behind the front
guarding the area from the sun. These clouds, along with the 
cold air advection regime behind the cold front, should keep 
temperatures down and high temperatures for the day likely 
already occurred at midnight, but daytime temperatures should be
stagnant in the lower 50s.

For tonight, clouds will start to disappear across portions of
Northwest and North Central Ohio as drier air and high pressure
build into the region. While the surface high will be to the
west and a slight pressure gradient will be across the area to
keep some light wind, conditions should be favorable enough for
temperatures to drop into the lower 30s and widespread frost
should develop over the western half of the area. Therefore,
have issued a Freeze Watch for 2 AM to 10 AM Saturday. Frost
potential decreases into Northeast Ohio and Northwest PA with
clouds still off the lake and will allow another forecast cycle
to determine the more conditional Frost Advisory areas for 
tonight.

Some low level ridging and surface high pressure building in
from the southwest will start to disrupt the lake effect clouds
and rain tonight into Saturday, as some warmer temperatures
aloft enter and mean low level flow shifts from the northwest to
west. Have tapered some chance PoPs tonight for NE OH/NW PA to 
just slight chance for Saturday. Saturday's high temperatures
could be slightly improved into the mid 50s during the day for
some.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
During the short term period, high pressure will push north from the 
south, allowing for winds across Lake Erie to become southwest and 
shift any lingering lake effect rain potential out of the area. This 
high pressure will also bring much drier air to the region, with 
dewpoint temperatures dropping into the low 30s through Monday 
afternoon. These factors will keep the area dry through the short 
term period. With the shift to southwest winds, warm air advection 
will allow temperatures to gradually begin to climb with highs on 
Sunday and Monday reaching into the low to mid 60s. Overnight lows 
Saturday night will be in the mid to upper 30s for much of the area, 
but temperatures along the lakeshore will remain in the 40s. These 
low temperatures mixed with lighter winds may allow for areas of 
frost to develop. On Sunday and Monday night, temperatures will be a 
bit warmer with lows only dropping into the upper 30s to low
40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The aforementioned high pressure that kept the area dry during the 
short term period will gradually drift off the Mid-Atlantic Coast by 
Tuesday night. By Wednesday morning, another trough will begin to 
dig south across the north-central United States. A cold front will 
extend along the spine of this trough and begin to gradually shift 
east towards the region. On Wednesday, a warm front associated with 
this system will shift north across the area, allowing for possible 
showers to develop along and ahead of the boundary. Behind this warm 
front, temperatures will continue to rise resulting in Wednesday's 
high temperatures reaching into the upper 60s to low 70s across the 
area. The aforementioned cold front will move across the area on 
Thursday, bringing plenty of moisture and widespread showers with 
it. As the boundary moves through temperatures will cool and only 
reach into the low to mid 60s on Thursday. Overnight lows 
temperatures will follow a similar pattern with Tuesday night being 
in the mid 40s to low 50s, increasing on Wednesday night into the 
low to mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
With a cold front southeast of the area, rain and lower clouds
have spread across the region this morning. Most terminals are
MVFR although there area a few holes in the MVFR layer that have
prompted brief recovery to VFR and then favored upslope areas
like KMFD have had some periods of IFR. Clouds are going to hand
on for a while today, especially downwind of Lake Erie and have
MVFR to start for all TAF sites. Ceilings should scour out with
time at KTOL and KFDY and expect these two to improve the most
through the period. For KERI, once the rain ends this morning,
the better MVFR chances will lie further west and have opted for
just some low VFR for much of the period. For the remaining four
terminals, would plan on MVFR through the period with some
intermittent rain showers this morning and perhaps again this
afternoon, especially at KCLE. Winds will be northwest through
the period and an occasional gust to 20 kts is possible.

Outlook...Non-VFR ceilings from lake clouds may linger across 
NE OH into NW PA into Saturday night.

&&

.MARINE...
A strong cold front moving across Lake Erie this morning has 
resulted in winds shifting to become north-northwest at 15-20 knots. 
The strong onshore flow will allow waves to build 4-6 feet through 
this afternoon, persisting for the central basin into the first half 
of tonight. As a result, a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect, 
but has been extended for all zones. The eastern and western basins 
are now in effect into the afternoon and the central basin through 
early tonight. As high pressure begins to push across the region 
tonight, winds will initially remain out of the north-northwest, but 
weaken to 10-15 knots. On Saturday, the aforementioned high pressure 
will continue to push east towards the Mid-Atlantic Coast allowing 
for west-southwest winds to develop across the lake. Increased 
pressure gradient over the lake due to a low pressure north of the 
region will result in winds of 15-20 knots, possibly touching 25 
knots in the open waters. These conditions will persist into Sunday 
morning and may be the next period that would require a Small Craft. 
By Sunday afternoon, high pressure will push north across the lake, 
weakening the pressure gradient and allowing west winds of 5-10 
knots to occur through Monday. Waterspouts should not be a problem 
through the weekend as strong winds, lack of moisture, and less than 
optimal delta-T between the lake and 850mb should prevent any 
development.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for 
     OHZ003-006-008-017>019-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for 
     LEZ142>144-148-149.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for LEZ145>147.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Saunders
NEAR TERM...Saunders/Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Campbell
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Campbell