148 
FXUS64 KMAF 071138
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
638 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022

Current IR WV imagery shows a nearly stationary upper lvl low 
situated over the Baja Del Norte. This feature will continue to be 
our main weather maker over the next several days as it slowly 
meanders ewd across N MX. Several shrtwvs embedded in sw flow aloft 
will traverse W TX and SE NM over the next 24 hrs, providing a 
source of instability and lift. Latest high-res model runs indicate 
a new round of convection firing early this afternoon across the 
northern half of the region. The HRRR and HREF ensemble are in 
agreement that scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop 
across the Permian Basin and southeast NM between 18Z-21Z. Some 
storms could produce brief heavy rainfall and localized flooding. 
Ample low lvl moisture and abundant cloud cover is expected to 
suppress high temperatures again today, especially across western 
portions of the area where low 70s are anticipated. The eastern 
basin and lower Trans Pecos will be a touch warmer with highs in 
the low 80s.  

As we get to the 00Z-06Z timeframe this evening, a backdoor cold 
front will begin to advance swd into the CWA. This will promote 
isentropic upglide and help prolong rain chances through tonight, 
especially across the northern Permian Basin and SE New Mexico. This 
front is expected to stall across the region early Saturday and its 
presence will be short lived as winds return to the SE by Saturday 
afternoon. However, with overcast skies and continued rain chances, 
high temperatures are expected to top out well below normal on 
Saturday, mainly in the upper 60s to mid 70s. 

-Salerno

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022

Saturday night, a large trough will be parked over Arizona/Sonora, 
resulting in generally zonal flow over West Texas and Southeast New 
Mexico.  A 30+kt LLJ is forecast to develop, keeping the boundary 
layer sufficiently mixed to keep overnight lows above normal. 
Overcast skies will assist in this endeavor as well.  Lows will 
remain above normal through the extended.  Sunday, thicknesses will 
begin recovering from Saturday's abysmally low temperatures, but 
only by a degree or two, and remaining below normal most locations. 
Monday, the trough opens and begins moving east.  Temperatures will 
attempt to recover further, but rain and overcast skies will make it 
somewhat of a wash.  Monday night and Tuesday, the shortwave will 
move through West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, but increasing 
thicknesses Tuesday will bring afternoon highs closer to normal. 
Southwest flow aloft follows the exiting trough on Wednesday, 
yielding perhaps the warmest temperatures this forecast.  Highs 
should come in at or above-normal most locations. Unfortunately, a 
cold front is due in Wednesday night, courtesy of a trough skirting 
the upper CONUS. This time of year, long-term models tend to play 
catch-up on fronts, and we'll shave a degree or two off temperatures 
Thursday afternoon and Friday morning. Temperatures Friday afternoon 
should come in at or below normal most locations. 

Rain chances look excellent at the beginning of the long term, with 
the trough over Arizona/Sonora, sending shortwaves into the area 
before opening and moving though West Texas and Southeast New Mexico 
Monday night and Tuesday.  Chances will begin increasing out west 
Saturday night, increasing east through Monday afternoon, when 
convection is likely through most of the CWA.  Forecast mid-level 
lapse rates and deep-layer shear Monday afternoon/evening suggest a 
marginal risk of severe activity, but parameters are not strong 
enough to commit to this attm.  Ensembles increase PWATs through 
Monday afternoon, to 1.5-2 std devs above normal for the northern 
half of the CWA, so this will be a good opportunity to work on our 
rainfall deficit across much of the area.  Should the going QPF 
remain the same or increase, a flood watch may be in the cards for 
Monday.  Tuesday, POPs drop off considerably as the trough exits the 
region, and dry grids are expected Tuesday night through Thursday. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022

VFR will prevail through the forecast period. Area radars 
currently depict light SHRA around KHOB, but this activity is 
waning. Redevelopment of sct SHRA and/or TSRA is possible this 
afternoon at CNM, HOB, INK and MAF. However, uncertainty in timing
and location of convection is too great to include mention attm. 
Winds will remain out of the ENE at or below 11 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               83  59  77  57 /  30  30  10  10 
Carlsbad                 73  56  72  56 /  40  40  30  50 
Dryden                   82  61  80  62 /  10  10  10  10 
Fort Stockton            80  56  76  58 /  20  20  20  20 
Guadalupe Pass           66  53  64  52 /  40  30  40  60 
Hobbs                    73  54  70  54 /  40  40  30  40 
Marfa                    71  48  69  50 /  20  20  40  50 
Midland Intl Airport     80  59  74  58 /  30  30  20  20 
Odessa                   80  59  74  59 /  30  30  20  20 
Wink                     79  59  75  59 /  30  30  20  40 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...24