040 
FXUS65 KVEF 070740
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1240 AM PDT Fri Oct 7 2022

.SYNOPSIS...A broad area of low pressure over southern Arizona and 
northwest Mexico through the weekend with easterly flow, moisture 
will push back westward for slight chance of showers and 
thunderstorms primarily over northwest Arizona and southeast 
California.
&&

.SHORT TERM...through Sunday night

Partly cloudy skies currently over southern Mohave and eastern San 
Bernardino County while skies clear elsewhere. Suspended dust from 
yesterdays impressive haboob in southeast California continues to 
limit visibility to around 6 miles at Twentynine Palms. Palm Springs 
and Thermal reporting between 3-5 miles. 

Good model agreement in large scale features during the period. 
Cutoff low will remain stationary over northwest Mexico/southern 
Arizona/far southeast California through Saturday. Strongest forcing 
will stay east of the low across southern Arizona with isolated 
storms occurring along the northern periphery of the low in southern 
Mohave County today and Saturday. On Saturday, may see a few storms 
bubble up over the higher terrain of San Bernardino County. Impact 
for these storms will be some gusty winds up to 35 mph. High 
pressure over California extending east into Nevada will keep 
southern Nevada warm today and Saturday. 

On Sunday, cutoff low will start to weaken and slowly shift east 
across Sonora while models show a weak shortwave dropping south out 
of Oregon into northern California and western Nevada. NBM has a 
slight chance of showers along the southern Sierra crest while 
slight chance of thunderstorms persists across Mohave County.   

.LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday.

Longer range guidance continues to struggle with the pattern 
evolution heading into next week. The weak low over Northern Mexico 
will gradually become absorbed be additional energy upstream. What 
once looked like a large and robust trough developing over the Great 
Basin now is looking less organized, with ensembles beginning to 
favor a weaker closed low developing over central California and 
slowly drifting into our vicinity through the week, while the brunt 
of the northern stream troughing stays progressive and rides the 
Canadian Border. As such, extended range temperatures have trended 
considerably warmer than advertised this time yesterday, and wind 
speeds reduced as well. For now, confidence remains low on the 
details but at least some low chances for showers will likely 
accompany the low as approaches the area next week.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...No operationally impactful weather 
anticipated during the TAF period. East-northeast winds around 6-8 
knots this afternoon, with a few cumulus clouds at 14 kft. Tonight 
winds flip to the west, as speeds remain below 10 knots. Similar 
conditions expected Saturday, with just a low chance of a 
thunderstorm or two over the local mountains. 

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast 
California...Light winds and mostly clear skies expected across most 
of the area. Winds will favor typical diurnal directions and 
generally remain at 10 knots or less. However, KDAG and KIFP could 
see a couple gusts this afternoon around 15 knots. A few showers and 
thunderstorms will be possible across southern Mohave County. 
Outflow from this precipitation may impact sites in the Colorado 
River Valley, but confidence in this scenario is low.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Pierce
LONG TERM...Outler
AVIATION...Woods

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