427 
FXUS62 KMLB 070718
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
318 AM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, HYDROLOGY...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 AM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022

Today-Tonight...Weak pressure gradient will exist across central FL 
today, with area between high pressure over the Gulf and west 
Atlantic. A cold front moving through the southeast U.S. will move 
toward north Florida late tonight, but will stall north of the area. 
Airmass will remain quite dry with PW values around 0.7"-0.8", which 
will continue rain-free conditions and mostly sunny skies. Light 
winds this morning will gradually become NE to ENE and increase to 5 
to 10 mph this afternoon. Highs will range from the low to mid 80s 
at the coast to mid-upper 80s over the interior. Lows tonight will 
again be in the 60s over much of the area. 

The Weekend...High pressure prevailing over the local area will keep 
PoPs generally low across east central Florida this weekend. PWATs 
less than 1" from a line from Melbourne to Kissimmee northward will 
keep mentionable PoPs largely out of the forecast through Saturday. 
However, slightly higher (up to 1.5") moisture along the Treasure 
Coast, Okeechobee County, and the offshore waters in this region may 
support an isolated shower or two Saturday. Then, gradually 
deepening moisture across the south will lead to PoPs increasing to 
around 30-50%, with a few lightning storms possible during the 
afternoon. A tightening pressure gradient will lead to breezy NE/ENE 
winds along the coast and over the Atlantic waters. Inland areas can 
expect winds up to around 10-15mph each afternoon. Seasonable 
temperatures expected, with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Morning 
lows in the 60s, with upper 60s possible along the coast south of 
the Cape due to the breezy onshore flow.

Monday-Thursday...Despite continued E/NE flow, moisture looks to 
increase from south to north next week (up to around 2-2.15" at 
times), with a possible inverted trough developing off of the east 
coast of Florida early in the week. Nonetheless, PoPs look to 
increase along with the moisture. For now, have maintained chance 
mention each day, though there could be a few spots of likely PoPs 
south of Melbourne a few days. Highest chance look to remain 
offshore and from Melbourne southward, including Okeechobee County. 
PoPs 30-50% from Orlando southward, with 20-30% to the north. A few 
lightning storms cannot be ruled out, but they should remain mostly 
over the Atlantic waters, should they form. Winds will relax a bit, 
though onshore flow with winds up to around 15mph will remain 
possible along the coast. Temperatures remaining Florida-fall-like, 
with highs in the low to mid-80s and lows in the upper 60s to low 
70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 257 AM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022

Today-Tonight...Favorable boating conditions expected, with a light 
to gentle N/NE breeze this morning, becoming NE this afternoon and 
then E/NE into tonight. Wind speeds will generally be 5-10 knots, 
increasing up to 10-13 knots south of Sebastian Inlet this afternoon 
and tonight. Seas 2-3 feet.

Saturday-Tuesday...High pressure over the local area will tighten 
the pressure gradient this weekend, leading to breezy conditions 
over the Atlantic waters. NE/ENE flow around 15-20kts expected, with 
seas around 4ft. The pressure gradient will relax into next week, 
but shower and storm chances will increase, with scattered showers 
and isolated storms possible each day. ENE/E flow around 15kts 
expected during this time, with seas 2-4ft.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 257 AM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022

VFR conditions expected today into tonight. Light winds will 
become NE to ENE this afternoon increasing up to 5-10 knots. 
Winds then become light and variable again into tonight. 

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 257 AM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022

Flooding concerns continue along all river forecast points in the 
wake of Ian. The Saint Johns River above Lake Harney is forecast to 
remain above the previous Record Flood stage (11.09 ft) through next 
week. The Saint Johns River at Sanford remains above Record Flood 
stage (8.51 ft) and will continue to slowly rise, cresting into the 
weekend. The Saint Johns River at Deland has now surpassed the 
previous Record Flood stage of 6.14 ft, and is forecast to continue 
to slowly rise through early next week. At Astor, river levels will 
rise slightly this weekend before remaining steady through early 
next week. The Saint Johns River near Cocoa will crest soon in Minor 
Flood stage and is forecast to slowly decrease through the weekend 
while remaining in Minor Flood stage. Shingle Creek near Campbell is 
in Moderate Flood stage and will continue a slow decline over the 
next few days, falling into Minor Flood stage Saturday. The Little 
Wekiva River has fallen below Flood stage and will continue to 
gradually decline through Action stage this weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  84  63  84  69 /   0   0   0   0 
MCO  87  64  88  68 /   0   0   0   0 
MLB  83  67  84  72 /   0   0  10  10 
VRB  84  67  85  72 /   0   0  10  10 
LEE  86  63  86  65 /   0   0   0   0 
SFB  86  63  86  67 /   0   0   0   0 
ORL  87  66  87  69 /   0   0   0   0 
FPR  83  67  84  71 /   0  10  10  20 

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...Weitlich
LONG TERM....Leahy