408 
FXUS63 KTOP 070537
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1237 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 152 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2022

Forecast Highlights:

-A cold front is moving through the area today with a much cooler
 air mass working in behind it.

-Light rain will be possible for portions of the area tomorrow.

-The first frost of the season remains in the forecast for Saturday 
morning.

Forecast Discussion:

At 19Z, a cold front was moving into and through northern Kansas. 
Temperatures have warmed nicely ahead of the front into the low 80s, 
but temperatures behind the front are in the 50s across central 
Nebraska. North winds will increase behind the boundary for a few 
hours late this afternoon and this evening as CAA becomes more 
evident. The center of a large surface ridge remains located in 
south-central Canada. With time over the next 24 hours, that ridge 
will slide southward into the Plains, bringing the much cooler 
Canadian air mass we have been anticipating. Afternoon temperatures 
tomorrow will be 20 to 30 degrees cooler than today, topping out 
mainly in the 50s across the CWA.

POPs will increase in north-central and northern Kansas tomorrow 
morning/midday in response to some mid-level frontogenesis. Light 
rain could fall for a few hours in those locations but QPF is less 
than 0.10". Dry weather is currently expected to continue through
at least the middle of next week when just a few chances for 
precip return to the forecast.

Cloud cover will clear and winds will be light with the center of 
the surface ridge over Kansas by Saturday morning. In locations that 
keep clear skies through Friday night, which is most likely to 
occur in northeast and eastern Kansas, frost is still looking 
probable early Saturday morning. As such, frost headlines may be 
issued at some point tomorrow.

Temperatures will warm quickly late in the weekend and for early 
next week as the surface ridge pushes east of the area. A few long 
range models have a highly amplified mid-level trough moving through 
the Midwest during the middle of next week. Another front, and 
possibly some rain (as mentioned previously) could occur with that 
system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022

VFR conditions prevail. Mid-clouds build in this morning with rain
showers possible later this morning into the afternoon. Highest 
confidence in showers resides at KMHK, so have included VCSH for a
few hours. North-northeast winds remain generally below 10kts; 
occasional gusts to 15kts are possible through midday.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Flanagan