294 
FXUS64 KMAF 070535
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1235 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2022

WV imagery shows the upper low currently over southern Arizona as
it retrogrades towards Baja CA. Decent low and mid level moisture
will be pushed into New Mexico and parts of Texas, although 
instability will be limited for much of the region. The favored 
areas for precipitation will continue to be across the higher 
terrain where orographic lift will aid in thunderstorm development
this afternoon. A small disturbance moved over the Permian Basin 
this morning, resulting in some cloudiness and light showers. This
disturbance will linger up near Lubbock, so it's not out of the 
question for a few thunderstorms in the N/NW Basin to develop in 
the afternoon. Clouds will be increasing as the day progresses, 
which may hinder storm chances and should help keep temperatures 
around normal. Highs today will be similar to yesterday, with 70s 
out west and 80s for the lower Trans Pecos and eastern Permian 
Basin. 

Friday will be almost identical to today with highs in the 70s 
and 80s, storms out west, and decent cloud cover. The upper 
pattern will begin to shift as a large upper trough sweeps down 
over the Great Lakes, and an associated cold front is pushed down 
into our region. The low over Baja will continue to advect 
moisture into New Mexico, and depending on the timing of the 
front, some storms may develop over the Basin as the front travels
southward. Currently, the front looks to arrive sometime early 
Saturday morning, and the newest runs of the ECMWF and GFS keep 
the better precip further north and west where the greatest 
moisture will be. This will be something to keep an eye on, as the
timing of the front and a slight eastward shift of the low of 
Baja would increase POPs for much of the Basin and lower Trans 
Pecos. Stay tuned. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2022

The forecast for Saturday has gotten more complicated in the last
24 hours. A cold front will enter the Permian Basin Basin late 
Friday into early Saturday. With upper level ridging holding in 
place, the front will lack deep cold air support causing the 
front to stall out. In fact, forecast soundings are showing enough
mixing will occur behind the front that it will retreat north 
into the northern Basin during the afternoon thus highs Saturday
will only be slightly cooler than Friday. 

The front mixes out completely on Sunday and lifts farther north
out of the area. Monday, the upper low along the U.S./Mexico 
border that has been cutoff from the westerlies will finally open
up and eject out to the northeast as the blocking high to the
north gets weakened. Models have been steadily increasing PoPs
Sunday and Monday as the remnants of the low pass over the CWA.
Shear and instability are marginal, but could be enough on Monday
for the threat of an isolated severe thunderstorm. Will also have
to monitor the threat for flash flooding mainly in the Guadalupe
and Davis Mountains both Sunday and Monday. An upper level ridge
develops over New Mexico late next week bringing an end to rain
chances and causing temperatures to edge back up.

Hennig

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Fri Oct 7 2022

VFR w/abundant mid-high clouds will continue through the forecast
period. Latest radar imagery shows a few SHRA near CNM and HOB,
but most terminals will stay dry overnight. Prevailing N-NE winds
with speeds below 10 kts expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               85  60  78  59 /  20  20  10  20 
Carlsbad                 77  56  73  56 /  30  40  30  50 
Dryden                   82  61  78  61 /  10   0  10  10 
Fort Stockton            80  58  77  59 /  10  10  20  20 
Guadalupe Pass           68  53  65  52 /  40  30  40  60 
Hobbs                    76  55  71  55 /  30  40  30  40 
Marfa                    73  48  70  50 /  30  10  30  40 
Midland Intl Airport     81  60  75  59 /  20  20  20  20 
Odessa                   80  60  75  59 /  20  20  20  20 
Wink                     80  59  76  59 /  20  20  20  30 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...24