274 
FXUS62 KILM 070519
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
119 AM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds over the area with warming temperatures 
through Friday, before a dry cold frontal passage Friday night 
leads to cooler temperatures over the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
No significant changes were made to the public forecast other
than to make some adjustments to the coastal flood advisories a
bit earlier.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WV imagery giving a good insight as to just how dry it is across the 
Southeastern U.S. The surface pressure pattern is poorly defined 
bringing a little variability to the winds, which will then go calm 
towards sunset with the loss of heating/mixing. SW gradient winds 
increase slightly Friday ahead of cold front, bolstering highs into 
the low 80s after tonioght's seasonable lows. A thin layer of 
moisture develops Friday at 5kft beneath an inversion, possibly 
serving at the height of some cumulus humilis.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front will start to make its way through the area Friday 
night, moving offshore by Saturday night. Highs behind the front on 
Saturday will be much lower, falling into the low to mid 70s inland 
and in the mid to upper 70s along the coast. Lows Saturday could get 
down into the upper 40s to near 50, staying more in the mid 50s 
along the coast. Outside of an increase in cloud cover, weather will 
stay dry due to the already deep dry air over our CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Behind the front from the short term, high pressure will start to 
build in again from the northwest. Energy from a shortwave trough 
aloft will move through Monday, but uncertainty still remains on 
whether rain will accompany it. Outside of this disturbance, the 
period should remain dry if a bit more cloudy. Highs should be in 
the mid to upper 70s with lows in the low to mid 50s. Guidance is 
hinting at another frontal passage near the end of the period which 
may bring higher chances for rain.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR will prevail over the next 24 hours. However there is a low
potential for reduced visibility in ground fog between 08-12 UTC
at KCRE.

Extended Outlook...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Friday:
Calm wind reported at 41013 last hour, not exactly 
a common occurrence. Wind to remain atypically light overnight with 
such an ill-defined pressure pattern in place. A defined 
southwesterly direction will emerge from the wind variability as 
Friday progresses due to the approach of a cold front, though a 
significant increase in wind speed not expected.  2ft waves persist 
as the dominant period at Frying Pan Shoals buoy still 10sec 
indicative of swell.

Friday Night Through Tuesday:
A cold front will be moving through Friday night into Saturday.
Winds Saturday will switch to northeasterly at around 10 knots,
increasing to 10-15 knots Sunday with 20 knot gusts. Seas will
increase from 1-2 feet on Saturday to 3-4 feet Sunday. The main
swell will be from the ENE at 9-10 seconds. These conditions
will persist through the end of the period.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...MBB/LEW