482 
FXUS64 KLCH 070457
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1157 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2022

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1004 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2022

Well after sundown, temperatures have dropped into the low to mid
60s. This is slightly faster than expected, due in part by clouds
taking longer to invade from the west. The evening update
refreshed the overnight forecast with the latest temperature
trends, with no other changes needed. 

11/Calhoun

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday) 
Issued at 255 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2022

Another quiet weather day ongoing across the region this afternoon
with temperatures running just a couple of degrees above
climatological normals. High pressure at the surface and
ridging aloft will continue to maintain mostly clear skies through
the night. Guidance hasn't done a particularly good job depicting
the patchy morning fog we've seen the last couple of days, but
with the pattern largely unchanged, wouldn't be surprised to see
reduced visibilities in a few spots overnight. 

Light and variable winds will be the story again tomorrow as
surface high pressure remains in place across the region. The
Texas department of Environmental Quality has issued an ozone
action day as the stagnant air will promote excessive build up of
ozone near the ground. Air quality should begin to improve during
the evening as winds increase in advance of a frontal boundary
that will push through the region early Saturday morning. Still
not seeing a whole lot of moisture with the boundary so an
increase in mid and high clouds looks to be the upper limit of
weather deterioration. Drier air will advect into the region
Saturday, but afternoon highs still look to climb into the upper
80s. However, with better radiational cooling, overnight lows
Saturday night into Sunday morning will be noticeably cooler than
the past few nights.

Jones

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Wednesday) 
Issued at 255 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2022

The start of the long term period will begin a pattern change from a 
drier and more temperate airmass to a warmer and moister airmass 
that will dominate the area through the long term period. Sunday 
will be our last mild day of the period with high pressure overhead 
providing light northeast winds and highs in the mid 80s. Aloft, 
troffing over the eastern CONUS will gradually flatten and weaken as 
we head into Monday, with a more zonal flow setting up by late 
Monday. This will allow surface high pressure to gradually slide 
east, turning winds to a more easterly flow. 

Weak zonal flow continues aloft on Tuesday, while at the surface 
high pressure drifts further east/northeast towards New England. 
This will allow winds to become more east to southeasterly Tuesday 
into Wednesday, resulting in a substantial uptick in moisture and in 
turn a warming trend. Highs will top out in the mid to upper 80s 
both Tuesday and Wednesday, while dewpoints will rebound back into 
the 60s. Moisture return will be fairly quick with PWATs surging 
into the 1.4-1.6 inch range by Wednesday afternoon, which is near 
the 75% moving average for this time of year per SPC Climo. 
Therefore, we may see a few isolated showers Wednesday afternoon, 
mainly along and south of I-10 where moisture return will be best. 
Thursday looks fairly similar, with a moist airmass overhead and 
another round of isolated afternoon showers possible, however, a 
pattern change looks to be on the horizon shortly beyond the end of 
the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2022

A mix of smoke and patchy fog is already producing vsby 
reductions at LCH and BPT, and this will likely continue 
overnight. Expect MVFR vsbys will prevail but fluctuations will 
likely produce occasional lower reductions. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail with high clouds continuing to stream 
across the region. Otherwise, light/near calm winds tonight will 
become northerly less than 10 KT during the day Friday.

24

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2022

Easterly flow will continue as high pressure drops southward into
the lower Mississippi Valley. Weakening high pressure over the 
region and a passing weak wave over the northwest Gulf of Mexico 
will result in more variable winds today and Friday. An offshore 
flow will redevelop by the weekend as another cold front sweeps 
through the coastal waters. Winds in wake of the front will be
just below criteria for a SCY. From Sunday, winds will remain
elevated out of the east for the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  60  91  61  85 /   0   0   0   0 
LCH  62  89  64  86 /   0   0   0   0 
LFT  61  90  65  87 /   0   0   0   0 
BPT  63  90  65  88 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...24