571 
FXUS63 KFGF 070440
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1140 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1010 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2022

Mostly clear skies prevail across much of the CWA this evening,
with remaining cloud cover mainly limited to the Lake of the Woods
region southward to about Wahpeton. Temperatures have dropped into
the upper 20s to low 30s where clearing has already taken place,
with upper 30s to low 40s where cloud cover remains. As such, our
coldest spots tonight are expected to be around the Devils Lake
area into the northern Red River Valley. CAMs continue to show a
low probability of snow flurries for portions of northwestern
Minnesota due to localized lake effect. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 141 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2022

IMPACTS...

1.) There is high confidence in a hard freeze occurring tonight
for the entire CWA. Temperatures may fall as low as the upper
teens.

2.) Isolated flurries may persist this afternoon, although impacts
will remain negligible.

METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...

TODAY...

Surface analysis indicates a strong 1040 surface high centered
over central Manitoba. This has been the primary driving force for
the gusty winds this afternoon thanks to the very strong pressure
gradient force. This will continue for the rest of the afternoon
prior to arrival of the surface high.

Lake effect cloud cover and snow flurries have been observed
across the Devils Lake Basin and northern Minnesota. These will
likely persist through the afternoon, although the precipitation
type should shift to drizzle should any of these precipitate.
Cloud cover will diminish as the surface high pushes in later this
afternoon and evening. Clear skies and light winds will arrive in
its wake.

REGARDING HARD FREEZE POTENTIAL TONIGHT...

There is high confidence in a widespread hard freeze occurring
tonight. Temperatures this afternoon sit in the mid to upper 40s
and have struggled to push 50 thanks to ongoing cloud cover and
strong cold air advection. As the surface high pushes in tonight,
expect cloud cover to diminish combined with weak winds. This
should allow temperatures to dive bomb into the low 20s and upper
10s (>90% chance of occurrence). Areas further southeast towards
the edge of the Red River Valley and Sisseton Hills may be a tad
warmer in the mid to upper 20s, with some sites maybe scraping
above 32.

FOR TOMORROW...

The aforementioned surface high will continue to linger tomorrow,
so expect a mostly quiet weather day. A broad swath of warm air
advection in advance of a shortwave does arrive bringing
increasing cloud cover, although impacts should remain low.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 141 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2022

Quiet weather is expected to prevail across the long term period, 
with only a slight chance (15%) for precipitation by the end of the 
forecast period. Otherwise, temperatures look to remain on a gradual 
warming trend across the weekend into early next week. 

Discussion...

The upper level pattern through the majority of the long term will 
be defined by troughing over the eastern CONUS and ridging over the 
western CONUS, placing the northern Plains underneath weak 
northwesterly flow aloft. Despite this pattern aloft, shortwave 
progressions through the region look to be minimal, with the only 
appreciable signal coming late Saturday into Sunday. This shortwave 
and an attendant surface cold front may introduce some light rain 
showers to the FA during this time frame. Otherwise, the main 
impacts will be high temperatures on Sunday cooling off from the 60s 
on Saturday into the mid to upper 50s by Sunday afternoon. Moving 
into early next week, transient ridging aloft will fall into place 
ahead of an upper trough traversing the Canadian prairies. This will 
result in quiet weather from subsidence aloft, as well as warming 
temperatures. High temperatures Monday look to rebound to near 
normal values in the 60s, with 60s to low 70s possible by Tuesday as 
southerly surface winds advect in a warmer air mass. Late in the 
forecast period, there are still indications within ensemble 
guidance that the aforementioned upper trough will impact the region 
in some capacity. There are still significant question marks 
regarding timing, location, and intensity of any precipitation 
associated with this wave though. Latest consensus yields only a 
slight (15%) chance for precipitation, with any precipitation 
remaining generally light (QPF less than 0.10"). 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2022

MVFR ceilings remain in place at KBJI this morning, with VFR CIGs
elsewhere. All TAF sites are expected to be at VFR status shortly
after midnight, with generally quiet conditions through the 
overnight period and into Friday. Winds slowly become more 
northwesterly through the early morning to midday hours.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Lynch
SHORT TERM...Perroux
LONG TERM...Rick
AVIATION...Lynch