261 
FXUS63 KJKL 070413 AAC
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1213 AM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1213 AM EDT FRI OCT 7 2022

Beginning to see a bit of valley fog developing on regional 
satellite. Thus made a quick update to the forecast package to 
add in a bit of patchy fog into some of the river valleys. 
Otherwise, forecast continues to run generally on target. Short 
term trends suggest a bit of drying behind what may be some type 
of weak boundary passing through the region, with the current 
scattered mid level clouds that are passing through the area 
likely associated with this feature. Drying appears to be limited 
to the thermal belt region, with the river valleys remaining 
decoupled. No other updated at this time. 

UPDATE Issued at 945 PM EDT THU OCT 6 2022

Forecast appears on track this evening. Nudged temperatures and
dew point grids towards most recent surface conditions. 
Temperatures were cooling a bit faster than advertised in the 
forecast package, but generally on track for advertised overnight 
lows. Freshened up the zone wording. No other changes at this 
time. 

UPDATE Issued at 759 PM EDT THU OCT 6 2022

Some mid level AC continues to roll through the region this 
evening. There has been some virga associated with light radar 
returns, and even a few reports of some sprinkles reaching the 
ground. Should see a period of clearing well after midnight as 
these clouds pass to our northeast and remain clear or several 
hours through or until about mid-day Friday. A cold front will be 
pushing through eastern Kentucky,reaching our northwest counties 
around sunrise and entirely through eastern Kentucky by early to 
mid afternoon. Winds will veer out of the west-northwest at 5-10 
mph behind the front. There will be a band of moisture well behind
the surface boundary, similar to an anafront, but not expecting 
any precipitation, though suspect a few sprinkles would be 
possible based on time heights and sounding data. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 311 PM EDT THU OCT 6 2022

The afternoon surface analysis shows high pressure remains in 
control of the weather across the Ohio Valley this afternoon. The 
main feature of interest is an upper level shortwave that 
continues to push east. This has kept a few passing mid and high 
level clouds going this afternoon, but outside this dry air at 
the surface is keeping anything you see on radar to virga or 
perhaps a brief sprinkle of rain. Overall this is leading to 
mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the low to mid 70s, but 
even some upper 70s have been seen in the central part of the 
state. The next feature of interest upstream is a cold front that 
is set to push toward the area late tonight into Friday. In the 
wake of the upper level feature today we could see a few lower 
clouds push into the area based on the HREF. Overall mostly clear 
skies are expected with perhaps some gradient setting up late. The
mostly clear skies and calm conditions in the valleys will lead 
to a a decent split of 10 degrees or so from the ridges. This
allow temperatures to drop into the low to mid 40s in the valleys
and upper 40s to lower 50s on the ridges. The was handled well by
leaning toward the fifth and tenth percentiles of the NBM for the
sheltered valleys.

This cold front will help to usher in a Canadian airmass Friday, 
as a Canadian high pressure located north of the border this 
afternoon sinks toward the Middle Mississippi River Valley by 
Friday afternoon and evening. The remains strong agreement among 
the various ensemble systems on the high placement and therefore 
leaned toward the NBM Friday. This will likely lead to a mix of 
sun and clouds on depending on the speed of the strong cold 
front. Also, as stated this will bring in a cooler and dry 
airmass, as winds go from westerly to northwesterly through the 
day on Friday. Most will top out in the mid to upper 60s with 
perhaps a few 70s depending on cloud cover and the frontal 
boundary speed. There is good agreement among the various 
ensemble and deterministic modeling systems to continue to lean 
toward the NBM for Friday night. It does look like some moisture 
becomes trapped in the far east and southeastern parts of Kentucky
leading to some relatively lower stratus potential. Overall the 
surface high will not crest and therefore expect some mixing will
remain across parts of the area due to the pressure gradient. 
This leads to some concern on how much frost we see but will keep 
it to patchy to areas toward dawn Saturday. Also, leaned a little
cooler in the valleys mainly in the southwest and Bluegrass. Did 
hold back in the far east and southeast given those linger cloud
cover potential. This will bring lows into the low to mid 30s in 
the Bluegrass and Lake Cumberland area and outside this likely 
more like mid to upper 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 310 PM EDT THU OCT 6 2022

The focus in the extended will continue to be the potential for
very cold temperatures and widespread frost across eastern
Kentucky over the upcoming weekend. The coldest nights will be
Saturday night and Sunday, as a much cooler Canadian air mass
spreads into the region behind a departed cold front. Our deeper,
most sheltered, and typically coldest valley locations could see
lows fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s Saturday night into
Sunday morning. Widespread frost will be possible that night in
those colder locations. Areas of frost will be possible Sunday
night into early Monday morning as well. With winds being light to
calm and mostly clear skies expected, the potential for frost
seems high at this time, especially Saturday night. High pressure
will keep the weather dry, albeit quite cool at times, through at
least Tuesday. We may see a long overdue shot of rain Wednesday
through Thursday, as an area of low pressure is forecast to move
through the region. 

Temperatures should be generally below normal through Monday, as
Canadian high pressure dominates our weather. A warming trend is
expected from Tuesday onward, as low pressure approaches and winds
shift to a more southerly flow. Above normal temperatures would
not be out of the question at this point next Wednesday and
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 759 PM EDT THU OCT 6 2022

Expecting generally VFR conditions through the forecast period.
Some mid level AC has to get through the region this evening. Has
been some virga associated with light radar returns, and even a 
few reports of some sprinkles reaching the ground. Should see a 
period of clearing well after midnight as these clouds pass to 
our northeast and remain clear or several hours through or until
about mid-day Friday. A cold front will be pushing through 
eastern Kentucky, with FROPA expected around dawn at KSYM, late 
morning at KJKL, KLOZ, and KSME, and then by mid-day at KSJS. 
Surface front should be entirely through eastern Kentucky by 
17-19Z. Winds will veer out of the west-northwest at 5-10 kts 
behind the front. There will be a band of moisture well behind the
surface boundary, similar to an anafront, with what appears to be
some marginal MVFR bases though guidance is more optimistic with 
cloud bases well into VFR territory. Either way, skies should 
generally remain scattered, though could not rule out a brief 
period of BKN conditions from time to time, especially across the 
east affecting mainly KJKL and KSJS. 

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...RAY