110 
FXUS63 KILX 070206
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
906 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 906 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2022

A cold front has moved across central Illinois with gusty
northwest winds bringing in a colder air mass. Temperatures will 
only top out in the mid 50s to lower 60s Friday and Saturday. 
Friday night into Saturday morning, widespread frost or freeze 
conditions are expected as lows fall into the lower to mid 30s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 906 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2022

A cold front has passed I-70 with winds turning northerly and
gusting to 25 mph behind the front. A broken band of showers and 
thunderstorms along the front earlier in the evening has weakened
greatly and only isolated showers with no lightning is noted in
current conditions. Have updated short term PoPs to track these 
isolated showers, now loosely organized near I-57, and continuing
to diminish and slip southeastward the next few hours. Winds have
been a bit less than expected behind the front, and have also
trimmed down a few mph, with only a narrow band of 10-15 mph winds
with gusts to 25 mph behind the front, then fading to around 10
mph overnight. Lows look to be in the 40s overnight, as winds keep
the boundary layer somewhat mixed.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2022

This afternoon, a cold front stretches from near Milwaukee into  
south central Iowa. A few showers and isolated storms are
occurring near the front. As the front pushes south across 
central Illinois through the late afternoon and evening hours, 
winds will turn northerly and increase with gusts into the 20 to 
30 mph range at times. A few spotty showers will still be possible 
through around 9 pm or so, but latest suite of CAMs keep overall 
coverage pretty low, in part owing to modest low level convergence
with prefrontal winds having already veered to a northwesterly 
direction along with negligible instability. Temperatures will 
fall into the 40s overnight and are only expected to warm into the
mid to upper 50s for most of central Illinois Friday, though 
south of I-70 may see temps reach the lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2022

Friday night into Saturday morning, strong high pressure will
spread south from the northern Great Plains into the central 
Great Plains with a ridge axis eastward over central Illinois. The
colder post frontal air mass coupled with favorable radiational 
cooling conditions under the ridge axis will allow temps to fall 
into the 30s across most of the forecast area. NBM guidance 
indicates the likelihood of temps fall to or below the freezing 
mark is greatest along and north of the Illinois River Valley 
where probabilities generally run 50-80 percent, and as such a 
Freeze Watch will be hoisted for this area. The Peoria metro area 
is an exception with probabilities of only 20-30 percent, but
a watch remains reasonable for other portions of the county. 
Southeast of the I-55 corridor, there is a better likelihood for 
temps staying above freezing, but still cold enough for a 
widespread frost. Temps remain on the cooler side during the day 
Saturday under otherwise fair weather conditions. Expect afternoon
highs right around 60F. Breezy north/north-northeast winds will 
persist Friday. Flow off of Lake Michigan will result in some lake
effect showers near the IL/IN border late tonight into the first 
half of Friday. Couldn't rule out a few sprinkles reaching areas 
near CMI to DNV, but overall chances are better over LOTs forecast
area and mainly expect an increase in cloud cover over portions 
of east central Illinois locally.

Surface ridge axis will settle to our south Sunday and while 
temperatures will start the day cool, in the mid to upper 30s, 
they will moderate as low/mid level flow backs more westerly 
advecting in warmer temps. Afternoon temps will rebound closer to 
seasonal norms with highs near 70F.

Monday through Wednesday of next week will continue to run near 
normal to slightly above normal as high pressure shifts to the
east coast and southwest flow overspreads the mid Mississippi 
Valley. A few low amplitude shortwaves traverse the region during 
this time, so cannot completely rule out any precip, but these 
waves are embedded within a building longwave upper ridge that
favors dry conditions and timing any low amplitude waves is 
difficult at this distance. Better chances for precip are expected
later Wednesday into Thursday as another strong cold front moves 
across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 658 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2022

Scattered showers and thunderstorms along a cold front will affect
the I-72 terminals only the first hour or so of the 00Z TAF 
period, then increasing northwest winds and a period of MVFR cloud
cover is expected between 00Z and 04Z. KCMI will likely see
continued MVFR cloud cover due to lake effect precipitation and
lingering cloud cover downstream from Lake Michigan until around
18Z. Winds becoming N 15G25 kts by 02Z, then decreasing to around
10-12 kts by 12Z.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for 
ILZ027>031-036>038-040-041-047>050.

&&

$$

UPDATE...37
SYNOPSIS...37
SHORT TERM...Deubelbeiss
LONG TERM...Deubelbeiss
AVIATION...37