249 
FXUS65 KBOU 070146
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
746 PM MDT Thu Oct 6 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 732 PM MDT Thu Oct 6 2022

Overall, just some minor adjustments to the grids tonight. Radar
still showing some light shower activity over the higher terrain
mainly south of I-70. This should be done shortly. Satellite
showing an area of stratus creeping southward out of southeast
WY/western NE. This will fill in across the northeast plains of
Colorado late this evening. No changes regarding the timing of 
the cold front at this time, with frontal passage at Denver 
expected around midnight. Some light shower activity still 
expected over the far northeast plains, with a cool and cloudy 
Friday for the Front Range and northeast plains.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 150 PM MDT Thu Oct 6 2022

Northwest flow aloft will prevail across Colorado through Friday.
The main short wave trough embedded in the northwest flow will 
pass well northeast of Colorado, but the cold front associated 
with it will back southwest across Colorado tonight. East to 
northeast winds will increase when the front pushes through. This 
will usher low level moisture and produce low clouds. By sunrise, 
expect widespread low clouds across northeast Colorado, this 
includes along the Front Range. Could see a little drizzle with 
low clouds, but cross sections indicate the saturated layer won't 
be very thick. An area of rain is expected to form tonight over 
western Nebraska. Best forcing (frontogenesis) to remain northeast
of the state, but some rain will be possible over the far 
northeast corner of Colorado. Cloud cover and a cooler air behind 
the cold front will result in a chilly day with highs in the 50s 
across northeast Colorado. The far northeast corner may only reach
the upper 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 150 PM MDT Thu Oct 6 2022

Friday night through Sunday, an upper level trough of low pressure 
will cover much of the Central and Eastern U.S. with a weak closed 
upper low centered over Northern Sonora Mexico. Some lift from a 
50KT upper jet and lingering weak upslope flow may result in 
scattered light rain showers Friday evening, mainly for areas south 
of Interstate 70. Some light snow will also be possible in the high 
country above ten thousand feet, with little accumulation expected. 
Saturday morning will be chilly with some plains locations possibly 
seeing their first frost of the season. Over the weekend, there 
should see a gradual warming trend with isolated to scattered 
showers and a few storms over the higher terrain.

Monday through Thursday, models are now showing an upper level 
shortwave dropping out of Alberta, Canada with the energy splitting 
as it digs into the Continental U.S. At this time, the consensus of 
the models is that the northern piece of energy will move across the 
Upper Midwest as an upper level trough, while a secondary piece 
retrogrades southwestward as a closed upper low along the West Coast 
of California. This pattern would leave the forecast area in a col 
with benign weather expected. As for temperatures, high's are 
expected to above normal Monday and Tuesday with readings forecasted 
to climb into the low to mid 70s on the plains. By mid week, a cold 
front may drop temperatures back to near normal values with a better 
chance for precipitation in the high country. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 612 PM MDT Thu Oct 6 2022

VFR expected until around 09z, with MVFR ceiling restrictions
developing by 11z and continuing into Friday afternoon. NE winds
will persist until 03z then shift SE until 06z then ENE winds
with the passage of a cold front until 11z, then NNW then rest of
the morning, back to NE Friday afternoon. Winds generally 8-12
kts, with stronger post frontal gusts after 06z.

The east winds will gust 20-25 knots behind a cold front after  
06z. Low clouds form behind the cold front by 10-12Z. Ceilings 
will be fairly low, bkn-ovc010-015, possibly under 010. For now 
will go with bkn012 in the terminals. Expect MVFR/ILS restrictions
Friday afternoon.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Cooper
SHORT TERM...Meier
LONG TERM...Kalina
AVIATION...Cooper