217 
FXUS61 KCLE 070106
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
906 PM EDT Thu Oct 6 2022

...00z TAF Aviation and Near Term Forecast Update...


.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure exits to the east and south today as a strong cold 
front approaches from the Upper Midwest. This front sweeps 
southeast across the region this evening into the overnight.
In the wake of the cold front another ridge influences the 
region through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
730 pm update...
We made some adjustments to the inherited forecast associated
with hourly POPs for this evening through tomorrow morning. 
They seemed a little too high for the scattered nature of the 
showers we are expecting with the passage of the cold front 
later tonight as well as any post front lake effect or 
enhancement of rain showers for the Snowbelt areas on Friday. 
Other than change to lower POPs from nearly 100 percent to a max
POP around 60 to 70 percent. We also changed the wording in the
zone forecast products from the usual POP chances to the 
"coverage" wording.

Previous discussion...
Cold front as of 3 pm was located across central MI to western 
IN. There remains a good push with the front so it should be 
into NW OH by 8 pm then continue its move to the southeast 
through the evening. Not much moisture ahead of the front so 
thinking is that we wont see much rain until the front passes. 
The isentropic lift in the wake of the boundary should be 
sufficient for a band of showers to move southeastward across 
the CWA, best chances should be downwind of Lake Erie from 
Sandusky to Erie. Winds increase in the wake of the front from 
the northwest making it feel much cooler overnight. Lows mostly 
in the 40's, slightly warmer near 50 along the lakeshore.


Cooler on Friday with lake effect showers across the eastern 
half of the CWA. Clouds will attempt to dissipate from west to 
east during the afternoon but will struggle to get east of a 
Sandusky to Mount Gilead. Highs mostly in the lower 50's.

Upper level trough moves across the region Friday evening with
lake effect showers shifting eastward through the overnight.
Clouds begin to clear from west to east through the night with 
winds attempting to decouple. The coldest temperatures should 
be across the western half of the CWA. If winds do decrease a 
few spots may touch freezing. So dont be surprised to see a 
frost/freeze headline for the west. Lows range from the lower 
30's to mid 40's.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure and much drier low-levels, RH values near 15-20%, will 
remain in place through the short term period. Westerly flow 
persists across the forecast area as high pressure migrates 
southeastward this weekend, keeping us dry for the weekend.

Temperatures will begin their gradual increase as high pressure and 
westerly flow begins to settle in. Highs remain below average and in 
the mid to upper 50s for Saturday. Another cool night in store for 
Saturday evening with widespread areas of low to mid 30s, warmer and 
closer to 40 near the lakeshore. Temperatures improve to the low to 
mid 60s for Sunday highs and low 40s overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper level trough will sit over the Great Lakes Monday into Tuesday 
along with a weak front crossing over the lake. However, dry air 
from the high pressure looks to hang around our area with most of 
the low level moisture staying north of the CWA. A cold front will 
cross the area on Thursday with plenty of moisture and a potent 
upper level trough. This will provide us our next best chance for 
rain to end the long term forecast period.  

Temperatures will improve throughout the week, beginning in the 60s 
on Monday with highs nearing 70 degrees on Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
The general expectations for the aviation weather will be VFR
conditions this evening becoming MVFR ceilings to lower end of
VFR ceilings. A cold front will move across the area later
tonight with ceilings lowering between 2000 to 3500 feet by
late tonight and Friday morning. There will be scattered light 
rain showers with the front with a general VCSH mention in the 
TAFs for 4 hour time window late tonight or very early Friday 
morning from west to east. We will see scattered lake effect 
clouds almost area wide on Friday but ceiling will likely 
improve above the 3000 feet VFR threshold midday or afternoon. 
There also be a slightly better chance for the frontal showers 
to have some brief MVFR impacts to TAF sites like CLE, ERI, and 
YNG late tonight with 5sm airfield visibility due to heavier 
showers over that airport. We have that highlighted in a 3 hour
TEMPO group with the potential timing. Winds will start out 
this evening from the south to southwest 5 to 10 knots ahead of 
the front. Behind the front, we will see winds from the 
northwest to northerly direction and remain around 10 to 12 
knot range through most of Friday.

Outlook...Non-VFR in scattered lake effect showers expected in 
the snowbelt areas southeast Lake Erie Friday afternoon into the
evening. Non- VFR ceilings from lake effect cloudiness may 
linger across NE OH into NW PA into Saturday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong cold front crosses from west to east across the lake tonight. 
Winds become northwesterly increasing to 15-20 knots with onshore 
flow meaning waves could reach 3-5+ feet. Small Craft Advisory is in 
place from this evening through tomorrow morning for the western and 
eastern basins, and through 4 PM Friday for central Lake Erie. Winds 
will remain northwesterly, decreasing to 10-15 knots by Friday 
night. High pressure will move into the area behind the cold front 
and will give way to westerly flow at 10-15 knots over the lake 
beginning Saturday morning. Winds may briefly touch 20 knots over 
the lake overnight Saturday into Sunday. As for waterspouts, opted 
to keep them out of the forecast with this update. Winds behind the 
cold front coupled with a lack of moisture and optimal delta-T 
between the lake surface and 850mb may prevent waterspout development.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for LEZ142>144-148-
     149.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Friday for LEZ145>147.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MM
NEAR TERM...Griffin/MM
SHORT TERM...Iverson
LONG TERM...Iverson
AVIATION...Griffin
MARINE...Iverson