855 
FXUS61 KBUF 070015
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
815 PM EDT Thu Oct 6 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A sharp cold front will cross the region tonight with showers or 
even an isolated rumble of thunder. Showers wrap up Friday as high 
pressure begins to influence the area. It will also be much cooler 
behind the front where high temps will peak well below normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Tonight...a strong mid- level trough will swing through the 
upper Great Lakes with its cold front approaching the area 
(western New York) around midnight. The cold front will then 
track from west to east with winds abruptly changing to the 
northwest behind the front. A much cooler air mass will then 
advect into the Lower Lakes overnight and will 'likely' continue
into the day Friday. That said...with the arrival of the front 
look for increasing chances for showers. We might even see a 
rumble of thunder with the front. This is support by upstream 
obs showing a few lightning strikes across Michigan this 
evening. 

With the frontal passage...moisture will then begin to deplete from 
west to east by Friday afternoon. With temperatures quickly cooling 
aloft (850mb temps near 0C to -2C) we may see some lake induced 
showers. However...this will 'likely' be limited due to the above 
mentioned depleting moisture. Any lake effect rain showers will be 
concentrated southeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Rainfall 
amounts there will average 0.10-0.25 inches with the higher amounts 
immediately east of the Lakes. It will also be breezy with northwest 
winds gusting 25-30 mph near the Lake Ontario southern shoreline on 
Friday.

Highs will be in the upper 40s to low 50s and likely reached during 
the morning hours to about lunchtime.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Following the cold frontal passage, 850 mb temperatures fall to 
around -5C creating an unstable over-lake environment, allowing 
bands of northwest flow lake effect rain showers Friday night. A 
fairly low subsidence inversion should limit overall coverage of 
lake effect. High pressure building into the region will bring an 
end to any lake effect showers early in the day with a general mix 
of cloud and sunshine through the day. Saturday will be a chilly day 
with high temperatures only in the 40s to lower 50s and made feel 
cooler by a brisk westerly winds. A secondary front approaches 
Saturday night, perhaps redeveloping a lake response east of Lake 
Ontario. 

The secondary frontal passage occurs on Sunday. For the most part 
this front should move through dry with the possible exception for 
areas east of Lake Ontario where some showers could accompany a 
frontal passage.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Persistent eastern CONUS trough will finally lift out during this 
period, however not before one last shortwave pinwheels through the 
base of the main upper trough as it crosses the lower Great Lakes 
and Northeast to start the period. Despite limited available 
moisture, there may be enough forcing provided by this feature 
combined with subtle low level convergence associated with diffuse 
surface boundary still hanging near or across the area to produce a 
few showers to begin the new work week. Beyond this, high pressure 
will build east over our area later Monday night into Tuesday, 
before ridge slides to our east Tuesday night into Wednesday. This 
will provide mainly dry weather with day-to-day warming of our 
temperatures through mid week. The next storm system will begin to 
approach the region toward the latter half of next week, bringing 
some showers back into the forecast toward the tail end of the 
period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Tonight...southwest wind will increase across western NY ahead 
of an approaching cold front. The front will likely reach 
KIAG/KBUF around midnight and then track east overnight. 
Ceilings will lower late tonight with MVFR/IFR conditions by 
Friday morning.

Outlook... 

Friday through Friday night...Some restrictions possible in 
scattered showers. 
Saturday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A strong cold front will continue to approach the lakes this evening 
with winds increasing from the southwest. The cold front will then 
track across the Lakes tonight with winds veering to the northwest. 
As this occurs...Small Craft conditions will quickly develop on area 
lakes. Have issued Small Craft Advisories for both lakes 
beginning tonight and lasting into the day Friday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT 
         Friday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for 
         LOZ030-042.
         Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 11 PM EDT Friday for 
         LOZ043-044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR/EAJ
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR