434 
FXUS62 KJAX 050057
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
857 PM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 830 PM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022

Current forecast was on track. Temps this evening are tumbling 
into the 60s with a few observations now in the upper 50s. Other 
than some scattered to broken high clouds above 25 kft per 00Z JAX
sounding, skies are clear skies. Winds will be light to calm as 
sfc high pressure cell builds in at 1018 mb. With dewpoints in 
the 50s, the low temps are expected to fall into the 50s most 
areas with near 60 deg readings along the coastal areas. Minor 
adjustments were made to decrease lows 1-2 deg.

.MARINE...

Forecast on track. Seas are lowering to 6 ft or less nearshore so
brought the nearshore waters down to SCEC headline. Some 7 ft 
seas likely offshore beyond 20 nm, with a ship observation some 50
nm out showing 7 feet this evening, so SCA is up offshore waters 
through late tonight.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 502 PM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022

Strong mid/upper level ridge stretching SSW from the Great Lakes 
into the mid south states is sandwiched between two troughs, the 
one ahead of it being a cut off low that continues to meander 
near the Delmarva peninsula while another is a positively tilted 
trough swinging from the upper plains towards the upper midwest 
and central plains. This pattern aloft is supporting high pressure
at the surface over northern IN/southern MI ahead of a weak north
to south cold front over the plains while low pressure remains 
stationary near the mouth of the Delaware River. Westerly flow 
aloft is keeping our area dry with a few cirrus clouds moving west
to east over NE FL with otherwise mostly sunny skies. Breezy 
winds have persisted this afternoon along the coast 15-20 mph with
gusts to around 30 to 35 mph with reduced winds inland to around 
10 mph from the north to NE. The breeziness combined with highs 
peaking in the mid to upper 70s have made for a very pleasant day 
and a spectacular sunset awaits as temps cool into the upper 60s 
and winds decrease. 

Otherwise the only weather concerns are in regards to the St Johns
river's upper basin as rainfall farther upstream over central FL 
drains down the St Johns river into Lake George towards Palatka, 
Satsuma, Dunns Creek and surrounding locations including Lake 
Crescent over inland Flagler county where the Coastal Flood 
Advisory was upgraded to a Coastal Flood Warning this afternoon
while a Coastal Flood advisory was extended into south central 
Duval county including the Buckman Bridge. See the Hydrology 
section for more information.

Tonight, some high clouds will cross the area with clear skies 
expected after midnight. Winds will lower at the coast to around 
5-10 mph from the NE and become calm inland. Lows away from the 
immediate coast will fall into the 50s with low 50s common over 
inland SE GA down to Gainesville with mid 50s over north central 
FL while sinking into the 60s along the NE FL coast and the upper 
50s over the SE GA coast. Despite calm winds inland, the dry 
airmass should prevent fog development except for very localized 
shallow fog over lakes, rivers, and open fields. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 502 PM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022

Wednesday and Thursday, high pressure will remain in control with
dry conditions and prevailing sunshine as the high eventually moves 
directly over the area into Thursday. Winds will lighten from the 
north with a weak seabreeze will form during the afternoon. Highs 
will warm to near normal levels after a cooler start to the week 
with low to mid 80s common away from the coast while staying in 
the 78F to 82F range along the coast. Overnight lows will remain 
below normal with 50s inland and the low to mid 60s along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday) Issued at 502 PM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022

A dry cold front will approach from the north on Friday with the
warmest day of the week expected as highs rise into the mid to 
upper 80s and possibly near 90 degrees inland and the low 80s 
along the coast under abundant sunshine and variable winds turning
easterly by afternoon as high pressure shifts south and east into
the western Atlantic waters off the FL peninsula. The cold front 
will pass through the region Saturday with a slight increase in 
cloud cover, but no rain expected with increasing north to NE 
winds along the coast as new high pressure builds from the NW. The
high will move north of the region on Sunday, then to the NNE on 
Monday with breezy, onshore NE winds. Some coastal convergent 
showers and Atlantic stratocumulus clouds will affect the coastal 
counties late Sunday into Monday, but mainly expecting isolated to
scattered coverage at this time as moisture increases back 
towards normal levels across the region. 

Highs will begin the period slightly above normal, then trend to 
slightly below normal Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 710 PM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022

VFR conditions prevail through the period with mainly just high 
clouds streaming west to east through Wednesday. There is a small
chance of MVFR vsby at VQQ from 06z-10z. Winds will be light to
calm tonight but a weak northwest flow possible by Wednesday
morning 12Z. Winds light northwest to north midday Wednesday, but
turn more east or southeast for SGJ, CRG, and SSI in the 
afternoon hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 502 PM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022

Strong northeast flow and elevated seas will continues into this 
evening as high pressure builds from the northwest. Winds will 
relax late tonight and seas will lower Wednesday and Thursday as 
the high builds over the area waters. A dry cold front will then 
approach by the end of the week and press southeast through the 
waters Saturday. Onshore flow will develop in the wake of the 
front and persist through early next week as high pressure anchors 
north of the waters. 

Rip Currents: SE GA High through this evening
              NE FL High through this evening

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 502 PM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022

Upgraded the Coastal Flood Advisory to a Coastal Flood Warning 
over eastern Putnam and inland Flagler counties adjacent to the 
St Johns river, Dunns Creek, and Crescent Lake as water continues
to drain downstream from the St Johns river basin over central FL.
Local observations have stated that today has featured noticeably
higher water levels in these locations compared to this time 
yesterday and gauge readings have also steadily increased with 
each high tide cycle into moderate level flooding. These locations
may see up to 2.0-3.0 ft of water inundation above normally dry 
ground (or MHHW) through at least Thursday and possibly through 
the start of the weekend. 

In addition, a Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for South
Central Duval county as gage readings from the Buckman Bridge, 
Cedar River at San Juan Ave and Julington Creek at St Augustine 
Road continues a trend from earlier today of elevated water levels
peaking into minor flooding levels during high tide. These areas 
south of downtown Jacksonville to the Shands Bridge will see minor
flooding realized with subsequent high tide cycles though at 
least Thursday. Northerly winds will help to prevent higher water 
levels from flushing downstream this afternoon and tonight into 
downtown Jacksonville and towards the Dames Point Bridge, but as 
winds relax over the next few days more water may begin to flow 
towards these areas and a Coastal Flood Advisory may be needed as 
water drains through the lower river basin through Friday to 
potentially the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  50  84  52  87 /   0   0   0   0 
SSI  59  81  61  81 /   0   0   0   0 
JAX  51  82  57  85 /   0   0   0   0 
SGJ  60  79  61  82 /   0   0   0   0 
GNV  51  83  57  85 /   0   0   0   0 
OCF  54  82  57  85 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT Thursday for FLZ033-325.

     Coastal Flood Warning until 11 AM EDT Thursday for FLZ038-137.

     High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for FLZ124-125-
     133-138.

GA...High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for GAZ154-166.

&&

$$