562 
FXUS64 KAMA 271130
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
630 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022

A surface trof of low pressure will move southward across the 
region today, causing winds to become north, then eventually 
northeast and east throughout the day today and tonight. Low 
level easterly and southeasterly flow will continue Wednesday. 
Passage of this surface trof will result in slightly cooler 
temperatures Wednesday, primarily due to the low level easterly 
and southeasterly flow in the wake of the surface trof. 

At upper levels, a ridge of high pressure over the Rockies and
adjacent western high plains will result in a continuation of
generally dry weather today through Wednesday night. This ridge
will likely flatten somewhat on Wednesday. Some showers and 
thunderstorms may develop over the mountains of northern and 
central New Mexico and southern Colorado later this afternoon and
evening courtesy of a fast moving minor upper level shortwave 
trof embedded in the overall flow pattern. However, these showers 
and storms that develop will likely struggle to survive as they 
drift off the mountains late this afternoon and evening towards 
the eastern plains of New Mexico and far western sections of our 
forecast area. Therefore, have kept pops below mentionable today 
through Wednesday night. However, if an isolated shower or storm 
manages to make it into parts of the western or southwestern zones
late this afternoon or evening, some very low pops may need to be
considered by later shifts. Short range models are in agreement 
with the overall upper level and surface patterns and were 
accepted. NBM pops and temperatures fit the above scenario and 
were incorporated into the grids today through Wednesday night.

02

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022

An overall uneventful forecast continues in the long term for the
Panhandles, but the keyword here is "overall" because we do have a
couple things we need to watch. Temperatures through this period 
will be seasonable with highs in the 80s and lows in the 50s for 
most locations nearly every day (couple areas may flirt with low 
90s for highs). The other noteworthy item will be the potential 
breezy wind speeds coming to the Panhandles both Thursday and 
Friday where sustained speeds could reach 20-25 mph for the 
north/northwestern half of the combined Panhandles. With the lack 
of rainfall in the forecast, we will have to pay more attention to
fire weather concerns because its getting to be that time of year
when wildfires become more of a concern. Speaking of rain, a 
pattern change may come the end of this week, and this could bring
rainfall chances back into the mix, but uncertainty does exist 
with that scenario. Lastly, there is some indication a weak cold
front may come through the area on Sunday/Sunday night. 

By Thursday, a ridge of high pressure over the Panhandles will be
noted at 500mb. Over the coming days, the aforementioned ridge 
sort of gets "sandwiched" between Tropical Cyclone Ian as it makes
landfall, and what may become a cutoff low approaching from the 
Pacific Northwest. What evolves next is a complicated upper level
pattern which may see two cutoff lows stagnant over the CONUS. To
further complicate things is another potential cyclone in the 
eastern Pacific which may track northward over Mexico towards 
Texas. Needless to say, but there is some uncertainty in the 
extended. The biggest question is: are we going to see our 
rainfall chances increase at all over this time? For now, our 
official forecast does not reflect any rainfall chances, but that 
doesn't mean this will hold true over the coming days as we refine
the forecast. 

Looking at Thursday and Friday, the approaching H5 low from the
pacific northwest may induce lee cyclogenesis both days. Models do
indicate a surface trough/low potentially developing over eastern
parts of Colorado, and this will place a pressure gradient over
the Panhandles. Looking at forecast soundings, neither of these
days appear to exhibit much momentum transfer aloft as winds are
generally weak through the column. This means the wind speeds
should be gradient driven both days. As for speeds, a lot will
depend on the exact placement of the trough/low and the associated
pressure field, but we are progged to see wind speeds reach 20-25
mph across north/northwestern parts of the Panhandles. With our
lack of rainfall received, and the lack of rainfall in the 
forecast, we may need to keep an eye on fire weather concerns for 
both Thursday and Friday. 

Guerrero

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022

For the 12Z TAFs, a surface trof of low pressure will move across
the terminal sites this morning into early this afternoon, causing
winds to become north, and then northeast, east, and back to north
again during this forecast cycle. Overall, VFR conditions are 
expected to prevail at KGUY, KDHT, and KAMA through 12Z Wednesday.

02

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                89  55  86  55 /   0   0   0   0 
Beaver OK                  90  52  81  51 /   0   0   0   0 
Boise City OK              86  51  81  51 /   0   0   0   0 
Borger TX                  92  58  88  58 /   0   0   0   0 
Boys Ranch TX              89  54  86  54 /   0   0   0   0 
Canyon TX                  89  55  86  54 /   0   0   0   0 
Clarendon TX               91  57  87  56 /   0   0   0   0 
Dalhart TX                 87  50  83  51 /   0   0   0   0 
Guymon OK                  89  52  82  51 /   0   0   0   0 
Hereford TX                90  55  87  54 /   0  10   0   0 
Lipscomb TX                90  53  82  52 /   0   0   0   0 
Pampa TX                   90  55  85  54 /   0   0   0   0 
Shamrock TX                93  55  87  54 /   0   0   0   0 
Wellington TX              93  57  89  55 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...02