695 
FXUS64 KBMX 260638
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
138 AM CDT Fri Aug 26 2022

.UPDATE...
For 06Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 0732 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2022/

Actually lowered rain chances for once in the past week. The
overall pattern remains relatively the same. The southern two
thirds of the area have high moisture content, slightly drier
north. This evening, there is simply a lack of instability,
convergence and lift in many areas. Also, the rainfall earlier
today had an affect on the local atmosphere. Expect some showers
and possibly a storm to remain in the forecast overnight. The
activity may try to increase before 12z, but more likely into the
morning hours south. Clouds and patchy fog will also develop after
midnight. 

75

Friday.

Mostly cloudy skies will persist on Friday with scattered to
numerous showers and some thunderstorms increasing through the day
with best chances across the southern portion of the area. Winds
will be from the southwest at 3-6 mph with highs in the mid to
upper 80s.

05

.LONG TERM...
/Updated at 1255 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2022/

Saturday through Wednesday. 

The active weather pattern will persist well into the extended 
period. Slight ridging will build aloft by the weekend as heights 
begin to fall across the intermountain region and plains. However, 
persistent deep southerly flow and high precipitable water values 
will keep scattered showers and thunderstorms in the picture.

Southern stream upper level energy begins to impinge upon the ridge 
by the upcoming work week. It should be noted there are some 
discrepancies in the models at this time frame. Having said that, 
this will likely result in another period of widespread rainfall by 
the early to middle part of next week. In short, there really isn't 
a definitive dry period or trend in the near future.

15


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Discussion.

It'll be a messy period overnight with the CIGs and VIS across
Central AL. Where rainfall occurred yesterday, mainly along and
south of Hwy 80/I-85, lower VIS has already developed. CIGs are
steadily lowering to MVFR to the north of that and will likely
continue to lower. Expect largely IFR to LIFR VIS in the south
overnight, improving after sunrise. For CIGS, IFR to LIFR has
already set up across the south with MVFR to IFR across the north.
CIGs and VIS should improve during the day tomorrow before rain
moves in across the south again. Confidence in the coverage of
precip for our northern sites tomorrow has kept Prob 30s in the
forecast vs. prevailing. 

25/owen

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rainy conditions should continue to affect much of the area 
through the weekend, especially south of I-20. Minimum RH values 
will be above 55 percent and 20 foot winds should remain less than
7 kts, mainly from the southeast on Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     87  69  90  70  89 /  50  20  40  10  50 
Anniston    87  70  89  70  89 /  50  20  50  10  50 
Birmingham  87  71  89  72  89 /  50  20  50  10  50 
Tuscaloosa  87  71  87  71  87 /  50  30  50  10  50 
Calera      86  71  88  72  87 /  50  30  50  10  60 
Auburn      84  71  86  70  86 /  70  30  60  20  60 
Montgomery  87  72  89  72  89 /  70  30  60  20  60 
Troy        87  72  87  71  87 /  70  40  70  20  70 

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None. 

&&

$$