333 
FXUS62 KTAE 160714
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
314 AM EDT Tue Aug 16 2022

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

A weak surface trough draped across the area is expected to 
interact with increasing deep layer moisture and the afternoon 
seabreeze to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms across 
mainly portions of the Florida panhandle, big bend, and southern 
Georgia. The highest rain chances are expected to be closer to the 
coast. Gusty winds, locally heavy rain, and lightning will be the 
main threats. High temperatures are expected to be in the 90-95 
range across most of the area. Rather high dewpoints near the coast 
are expected to result in max afternoon heat index values around 105 
across portions of the Florida  panhandle and big bend.

For tonight, convection over land is expected to diminish quickly 
after sunset with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s for most of 
the area.


.SHORT TERM & LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Tuesday]...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday with
light westerly to slightly north of westerly winds keeping lower
dewpoints at the surface as a weak frontal boundary sags into the
area. Forecast soundings show a fairly pronounced inverted V 
during the afternoon hours with forecast DCAPE near 800-1000 J/kg 
indicating a damaging wind threat. As such, SPC has outlooked most
of the area in a Marginal Risk for severe weather. Showers and 
storms should diminish over the evening hours. 

A wet pattern is forecast for the remainder of the week with 
heavy rainfall and subsequent flooding possible. The trough over 
the eastern CONUS is forecast to deepen a bit once again with the 
axis positioned west of our region. Deep layer moisture is 
forecast to remain entrenched over the area with forecast PWs near
2.0-2.2 inches, which are high even by August standards. The
stalled front is forecast to remain overhead or just north of the
area on Thursday, which may provide a focusing mechanism for 
developing showers and thunderstorms. Favorable jet dynamics are 
also expected as the region becomes situated within the right 
entrance region of the upper level jet. Regardless of where the 
actual front ends up, outflows from developing showers and 
thunderstorms along with the seabreeze will create widespread 
showers and thunderstorms across the area. The pattern is forecast
to remain fairly consistent from Thursday into Friday and even 
Saturday to some extent, so several rounds of heavy rainfall will 
be possible through that time period. Widespread rainfall totals 
of 2 to 3 inches are forecast with these storms, with locally 
higher totals likely. Given the wet pattern we've been in 
recently, these pockets of higher rainfall may cause flooding 
issues. 

By Sunday into early next week the trough axis has swung well 
northeast of the area with a return to more typical summertime 
convection is expected. High temperatures are forecast in the mid 
80s to near 90 for much of the long term period with the 
substantial increase in rain chances. Low temperatures are 
forecast to remain in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 06Z Wednesday]

An area of showers and a few thunderstorms pushing through 
portions of southwest Georgia and southeast Alabama is expected to
continue to weaken early this morning. Additional scattered 
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon 
across portions of the Florida panhandle, big bend, and adjacent 
sections of far southern Georgia, possibly affecting areas around 
KECP, KTLH, and KVLD.

&&

.MARINE...

Southwesterly to westerly winds and seas near 2 to 3 feet are
expected for most of the upcoming period, with increasing rain 
chances over the waters mid-week into the weekend. Cautionary 
conditions will be possible at times as a cold front approaches 
the region.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Humidity is forecast to remain well above critical thresholds, and 
there are no fire weather concerns other than the potential for 
occasional high dispersions. A wetter pattern is expected to 
return by the middle to end of the week.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...

A drier air mass is forecast to keep conditions fairly quiet for
the next couple of days. However, a wet pattern returns Thursday
into the weekend with several rounds of heavy rainfall and
subsequent flooding of urban and/or poor drainage areas possible.
Rises on area rivers will be possible, but river flooding is not
anticipated at this time.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   92  74  95  73  91 /  40  20  30  40  70 
Panama City   90  76  92  75  89 /  50  10  20  40  70 
Dothan        94  72  93  71  87 /  10  10  40  50  80 
Albany        93  72  93  72  85 /  20  10  40  50  80 
Valdosta      93  72  95  73  90 /  40  10  40  40  80 
Cross City    91  77  94  76  93 /  40  30  50  30  70 
Apalachicola  89  78  91  76  88 /  50  20  20  30  60 

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk from 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning 
     through this evening for Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South 
     Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Merrifield
LONG TERM...Merrifield
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Merrifield