National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDTSA
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDTSA
Product Timestamp: 2022-08-12 23:06 UTC
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608 FXUS64 KTSA 122306 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 606 PM CDT Fri Aug 12 2022 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Through Tonight) Issued at 152 PM CDT Fri Aug 12 2022 Another nice and quiet night is expected tonight, with overnight lows expected to be near normal values and several degrees warmer than last night. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Friday) Issued at 152 PM CDT Fri Aug 12 2022 The main concerns in the long term involve the potential return of headline worthy heat and humidity and the awaited upper level pattern change and the overall degree and longevity of associated impacts across the area. Triple digit heat is likely to make a return to much of the area by the end of the weekend and continue into early next week, as upper level ridging shifts eastward into the region. Dew points are expected to stay largely in check, which should keep maximum heat index values during this time frame around the 105 degree threshold for heat advisories. It's likely that advisories will be needed, most likely in the Sunday-Monday period, but given the marginal nature of the currently forecast values, expect this to be decided on a day-to-day basis. During the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame, both deterministic and ensemble solutions remain fairly consistent in shifting the upper level ridge west, allowing north to northwest flow to develop over and a cold front to push through the region. Ahead of the front on Tuesday, temperatures should remain hot across most of the area and it is not out of the question that heat products will be needed into Tuesday as well. Showers and thunderstorms should accompany the front from north to south, primarily from late Tuesday into Wednesday, focused nearer to the upper support in western Arkansas. Locally heavy rainfall could occur, with PWATs approaching the climatological 90th percentile values. Regarding timing of the POPs, those offered by the NBM are more aggressive prior to Tuesday evening than trends in both deterministic and ensemble solutions indicate. As such, one notable change made to the NBM offering was to decrease POPs some from 06Z Tuesday to 00Z Wednesday, especially in far northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas. Temperatures should be noticeably cooler behind the front, especially Wednesday and Thursday when widespread temperatures in the 80s are expected. However, with the upper level pattern becoming less amplified into the following weekend, temperatures should return to levels that are closer to normal fairly quickly. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 606 PM CDT Fri Aug 12 2022 VFR conditions will prevail at all sites through the forecast period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 73 97 74 101 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 72 95 71 100 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 72 97 70 99 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 69 98 69 102 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 67 93 67 97 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 67 93 67 97 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 70 93 69 97 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 70 96 69 100 / 0 0 0 0 F10 71 97 71 100 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 72 95 71 97 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...22 LONG TERM....22 AVIATION...14