293 
FXUS62 KMLB 071431
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1031 AM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022

.DISCUSSION...
Morning sounding at the Cape continues to show a prevailing
easterly flow in the low to mid levels below 500mb, and a PW value
of 1.7 inches which matches GOES 16 TPW imagery. An approaching
inverted mid-level trough/upper low should increase shower/storm
activity some over the coastal waters through this afternoon.
However, over land areas the more dominant onshore flow and
subsidence produced behind the inland moving east coast sea breeze 
will continue to focus greatest coverage of showers and storms across
the interior and help weaken any activity over the coastal waters
that may approach the coast. Have PoPs ranging from 20-30 percent
along the coast and up to 40-50 percent across the interior. Temps
will be a tad cooler aloft, around -7 to -8C at 500mb, with
lingering drier air aloft, which could still lead to isolated
stronger storms this afternoon. Main storm threats remain locally
heavy downpours, gusty winds, occasional to frequent cloud-to-
ground lightning strikes, and perhaps some small hail.

Highs forecast to range from the upper 80s to near 90 at the 
coast and low to mid 90s across the interior. Peak heat indices 
continuing in the 100-105F range. 

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR. Similar pattern to the past few days, with
onshore moving showers along the coast, mainly south of the Cape
this morning. Then isolated to scattered showers and storms 
developing and pushing westward through the late morning and 
afternoon with the inland moving east coast sea breeze. Easterly
flow will continue to focus greatest coverage of this activity
west of I-95. May again need some tempo groups for IFR/MVFR
conditions, mainly for inland terminals this afternoon. 
Otherwise, have VCSH at the coast and VCTS across the interior in
the TAFs for now. Winds ENE-ESE 7-12 kts with some occasional 
higher gusts.

&&

.MARINE...
Today-Tonight...(Previous Discussion) Persistent pattern with 
deep onshore flow and some additional moisture. Atlc surface ridge
axis remains well north of the local waters with generally 
favorable boating conditions continuing outside of scattered 
showers and isolated lightning storms. ESE-ENE winds at 10-15 kts.
Seas 2-3 ft, but could see some 4 ft sets well offshore/Gulf 
Stream.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  90  75  90  75 /  30  20  50  20 
MCO  93  75  93  75 /  40  10  70  20 
MLB  90  77  90  78 /  30  30  50  20 
VRB  90  74  91  75 /  30  30  50  20 
LEE  93  76  92  75 /  50  10  70  20 
SFB  92  75  92  75 /  40  10  60  20 
ORL  94  77  94  77 /  40  10  70  20 
FPR  89  74  90  75 /  30  30  50  20 

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Weitlich/Rodriguez/Law