116 
FXUS61 KCLE 271804
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
204 PM EDT Wed Jul 27 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure moves across northeast Ohio into western New
York through the evening pulling a cold front eastward with it.
Another cold front is expected to cross the region Thursday 
night into Friday morning. High pressure returns Friday, then 
persist into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Weak low pressure moves across northeast Ohio into western New 
York through the evening pulling a cold front eastward with it.
This should provide the region with an increase in showers 
through the afternoon. There is a 7H jet of around 40 knots but
its influence looks to be mainly the central and southern
portion of the state. Also there is a lack of low level 
instability across northern OH into NW PA. So for now have
increased the rain chances across the entire region.
Thunderstorms look to be scattered at best. 

Highs this afternoon limited by the showers and cloud cover 
with 70's to maybe lower 80's. Lows tonight should be warmer 
with the increased low level moisture. So expect to see lows in 
the 60's to lower 70's. 

Showers should end from west to east through Thursday morning
with most areas dry during the afternoon. There should be a decent
amount of sunshine so it will be warmer. Highs in the 80's.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Thursday night cold front comes through with the last of the 
convective chances before high pressure settles into the southern 
Great Lakes/lower Ohio Valley. 500mb flow exhibits a few waves in 
the flow that will be turning zonal, but a dry column will prevent 
any precipitation over the short term period. With the reinforcement 
of the seasonal airmass, expecting temperatures hovering around the 
upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Finally get back into return flow as high pressure  moves off the 
Atlantic Coast. Before any significant heat can build, a cold front 
moves through in the late Monday/Monday night time frame with high 
pressure again into midweek bringing scattered showers and storms, 
lingering into Tuesday. Heat will begin building over the central 
part of the country at the end of the long term period in the form 
of an elongated upper level ridge.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
NOt much low level mixing today with MVFR ceilings holding on
across much of northern OH. Showers and a few thunderstorms will
move across the region through the afternoon and evening.
Scattered thunderstorms and heavier showers are expected to 
produce at least brief IFR conditions. Showers should end from 
west to east overnight into Thursday morning with MVFR, maybe 
brief IFR ceilings ahead of it. 

Southwest winds 6 to 12 knots dominate the majority of the 
forecast period. Winds should become gusty late Thursday
morning into the afternoon. Gusts may reach 20 to 25 knots near
and west of a line from KCLE to KMNN. 

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms 
Thursday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds southwesterly 10-15kts through Thursday leading to 2-3ft waves 
in the eastern turn northwesterly behind a cold front Thursday night 
into Friday around 10kts. Lake continues with chop 1-3ft until the 
northwesterly winds subside into the weekend. High pressure settles 
in over the southern Great Lakes Saturday, and with light and 
variable winds, waves turn less than 2ft through Sunday. 
Southwesterly winds return for Monday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MM
NEAR TERM...MM
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...26