931 
FXUS61 KBGM 252205
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
605 PM EDT Mon Jul 25 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front continues to slide to the east this afternoon and
will usher in drier and cooler conditions to the region. This
front will also trigger a few additional scattered 
thunderstorms in the Catskills and Poconos this afternoon. After
some valley fog in the morning, fair weather continues on 
Tuesday, with some showers returning Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
600 PM Update

The severe thunderstorm threat has ended across Sullivan and
Pike counties. A few small pulse storms may form over the next
hour but they will not last for very long if they do.
The cold front is currently moving through NEPA and the 
southern Catskills and should be SE of the region in a couple 
more hours.

The current forecast remains on track and has been updated with
current observations and trends.


303 PM update...
Main concerns in the near term are focused on the potential for
thunderstorms along a cold front dropping south/se through the 
southern Catskills and Poconos this afternoon...followed by 
valley fog tonight...a pleasant day Tuesday and more fog Tuesday
night. 

Upper trough axis becoming negatively tilted across the eastern
Great Lakes this afternoon and the associated surface cold 
front currently moving south/southeast oriented east-west from 
the Catskills back into the northern tier of PA. There has been 
isolated rain showers with embedded brief heavy downpours along 
the front which have been capable of producing a quarter to half
an inch of rain per hour. The air mass ahead of the front 
continues to destabilize with ML CAPE values around 1000 J/kg 
and gradually steepening low level lapse rates. There is plenty 
of deep layer shear around...around 40 kt of 0-6km shear...and 
even a decent amount of low level shear with 0-1km shear around 
15-20 kt. It may end up being a race against the clock in terms 
of strong to severe thunderstorms development. The convection 
may not be able to mature and become deep enough prior to 
exiting the region. The storms will need to be monitored and the
Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect for Pike PA and 
Sullivan NY. Strong damaging winds remain the main threat, along
with heavy downpours. 

After the cold front exits the region early this evening, 
weather conditions will remain quiet through the night and 
through the day Tuesday. Temperatures today have warmed into the
70s and lower 80s with very comfortable dew points in the upper
50s and lower 60s. Temperatures tonight will be able to fall 
into the lower 50s to lower 60s as high pressure settles in 
overhead. Large scale suppression tonight will allow for mostly 
clear skies and light winds which will create favorable 
conditions for valley fog. 

After the fog lifts and mixes out Tuesday morning conditions 
will remain pleasant and temperatures will warm into the mid 70s
to mid 80s. Dew points will remain in the 50s for most of the 
area with partly to mostly sunny skies. A weak boundary to the 
south will slowly inch northward Tuesday night and possibly 
spill a few clouds and light rain showers into ne PA into early 
Wed morning, but no significant rainfall is expected. 
Temperatures will fall back into the 50s and 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
240 PM Update...

Most of the area should stay dry into Wednesday with the surface 
high over the area and mainly zonal flow aloft. However, the surface 
high will begin to shift eastward during the day, and southerly flow 
will increase as a sprawling upper low moves into Ontario. Warm air 
advection and a weak shortwave moving out ahead of the parent upper 
low may touch off some showers into the afternoon and evening. 
Chances for on and off showers and rumbles of thunder continue 
Wednesday night through Thursday with hints at another weak ripple 
in our mainly zonal flow. 

Otherwise, Wednesday and Thursday should be the warmest days of the 
work week, with highs generally ranging in the mid and upper 80s 
and lows in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
240 PM Update

Chances for showers and storms continue Thursday  night into Friday 
as the upper trough finally digs in and slowly drags the cold front 
through early in the day Friday. However, showers could linger the 
rest of Friday, even behind the front, with some dynamical support 
owing to an upper jet streak draped over the region. Dry weather 
returns into the weekend as high pressure builds in. Temperatures 
turn more or less seasonal for the rest of the forecast period 
behind the front, with highs Friday and Saturday in the upper 70s to 
lower 80s and lows both nights in the upper 50s to lower 60s. 
Temperatures may start to increase again Sunday as the ridge begins 
to shift eastward once more with southwesterly return flow.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The cold front has dropped s/se of BGM...which will leave the
central NY terminals VFR through the rest of the day. The main
concern will be for thunderstorms at AVP through the afternoon.
Some restrictions are possible as the convection develops south
of the NY/PA border and makes its way farther east and south.
Most favorable timeframe at AVP for TS will be between 19-21Z. 
After the storms move through AVP should return to VFR. High
pressure will keep weather quiet tonight with a good setup for 
valley fog...potentially impacting ELM into Tue morning.

Gusty west/Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt this afternoon will
diminish to 5 kt or less tonight and then increase again out of
the west after 15Z Tue around 15 kt. 

Outlook...

Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday...mainly VFR. Possible 
valley fog at ELM Wed morning.

Thursday and Friday...Next chance of showers and storms with 
associated restrictions possible.

Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJT
NEAR TERM...BJT/JTC
SHORT TERM...HLC
LONG TERM...HLC
AVIATION...BJT/MPH