599 
FXUS61 KBGM 251844
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
244 PM EDT Mon Jul 25 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front continues to slide to the east this afternoon and
will usher in drier and cooler conditions to the region. This
front will also trigger a few additional scattered 
thunderstorms in the Catskills and Poconos this afternoon. After
some valley fog in the morning, fair weather continues on 
Tuesday, with some showers returning Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
125 PM update...
Will keep watching the progression of the cold front to the
east/southeast this afternoon into a gradually destabilizing
environment. Convection along the front should intensify by the
time the boundary reaches south of Delaware County NY, with 
some cells potentially maturing enough to produce damaging 
winds. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for Sullivan 
NY and Pike PA. 

1152 AM update...

No significant changes made to the forecast at this time with a
thin line of weak convection along the cold front tracking to
the east/southeast across central/southern NY as of noon. This
boundary is expected to interact with a more unstable air mass
to the east later today...which could allow convection to 
initiate over the Poconos and southern Catskills before moving
out of the area. Most of the CAMs coming in this morning are not
overly enthused about the convective potential, but will watch
the evolution through the next several hours closely.

440 AM Update... 
Cold front currently extends along Lake Erie, up to near 
Buffalo, then cuts north just west of Prince Edward County
Ontario, with a prefrontal tough right along the southeast shore
of Lake Ontario. Ahead of these boundaries, lines of
thunderstorms have mostly converged into a broad area of light
to moderate rain with several embedded clusters of thunderstorms
with heavier rainfall. The band is continuing to be fed by 
moisture advection delivered by a strong low level jet. VWP here
at BGM recently popped up to 50 knots at the 850 mb level. 

RAP analysis and forecasts show the LLJ will continue to push 
east of the area over the next 2 to 3 hours. As it does so, 
expect the embedded heavier showers/storms to diminish in number,
especially as the band approaches the Upper Susquehanna. This 
slow weakening trend has already been occurring, as the focus 
for heavier convection has shifted into western PA. 

However, as a strong tough moves into northwestern Quebec 
early this morning, a strengthening jet streak over the Lower 
Saint Lawrence valley will keep fairly strong upper level 
diffluence in place across the eastern half of NY, so we should 
maintain fairly good coverage of light to moderate rain as far 
east as the Upper Susquehanna, with the band then weakening 
further as it approaches the Catskills and Poconos. 

But the cold front will still be lagging behind with the odd 
shower or thunderstorm through the morning, but it may trigger 
additional strong to borderline-severe thunderstorms in parts of
the Catskills or Poconos early this afternoon, assuming the main
precip band dissipates when expected. The severe weather risk
will be mitigated by much weaker shear as low to mid level winds
will be much weaker.

For most of Central NY and parts of NE PA to the northwest of
the Wyoming Valley, the afternoon will be nice, with much cooler
temperatures, and satisfied vegetation. 

Dewpoints will drop into the 50s this afternoon, but light
northwest winds will diminish after dark, and it should be a
good setup for valley fog given the widespread rainfall.

High pressure will remain in control with fine weather for
Tuesday, and temperatures in the upper-70s to lower-80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
240 PM Update...

Most of the area should stay dry into Wednesday with the surface 
high over the area and mainly zonal flow aloft. However, the surface 
high will begin to shift eastward during the day, and southerly flow 
will increase as a sprawling upper low moves into Ontario. Warm air 
advection and a weak shortwave moving out ahead of the parent upper 
low may touch off some showers into the afternoon and evening. 
Chances for on and off showers and rumbles of thunder continue 
Wednesday night through Thursday with hints at another weak ripple 
in our mainly zonal flow. 

Otherwise, Wednesday and Thursday should be the warmest days of the 
work week, with highs generally ranging in the mid and upper 80s 
and lows in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
240 PM Update

Chances for showers and storms continue Thursday  night into Friday 
as the upper trough finally digs in and slowly drags the cold front 
through early in the day Friday. However, showers could linger the 
rest of Friday, even behind the front, with some dynamical support 
owing to an upper jet streak draped over the region. Dry weather 
returns into the weekend as high pressure builds in. Temperatures 
turn more or less seasonal for the rest of the forecast period 
behind the front, with highs Friday and Saturday in the upper 70s to 
lower 80s and lows both nights in the upper 50s to lower 60s. 
Temperatures may start to increase again Sunday as the ridge begins 
to shift eastward once more with southwesterly return flow. 

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The cold front has dropped s/se of BGM...which will leave the
central NY terminals VFR through the rest of the day. The main
concern will be for thunderstorms at AVP through the afternoon.
Some restrictions are possible as the convection develops south
of the NY/PA border and makes its way farther east and south.
Most favorable timeframe at AVP for TS will be between 19-21Z. 
After the storms move through AVP should return to VFR. High
pressure will keep weather quiet tonight with a good setup for 
valley fog...potentially impacting ELM into Tue morning.

Gusty west/Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt this afternoon will
diminish to 5 kt or less tonight and then increase again out of
the west after 15Z Tue around 15 kt. 

Outlook...

Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday...mainly VFR. Possible 
valley fog at ELM Wed morning.

Thursday and Friday...Next chance of showers and storms with 
associated restrictions possible.

Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJT/MPH
NEAR TERM...BJT/MPH
SHORT TERM...HLC
LONG TERM...HLC
AVIATION...BJT/MPH