976 
FXUS64 KMAF 240518
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1218 AM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022

...New AVIATION...

See 06z aviation discussion below.

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will
mostly be out of the southeast. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 144 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

WV imagery shows the upper ridge now east of the Four Corners, 
making its move to the southeast CONUS.  Closer to home, 
temperatures look to be cooler today than yesterday, w/850mb temps 
coming down on the 12Z KMAF sounding a degree or two from 24 hours 
ago.  Out west, mesoanalysis shows a surface trough extending from 
the Big Bends Area up through El Paso, and this will combine 
w/upslope flow this afternoon/evening for scattered convection, 
mainly over the Davis Mountains and Marfa Plateau.  At 18Z, 
satellite imagery shows a cu field going up along the lee of the 
mountains, but nothing has materialized on the radar scope yet.

Tonight, a 35+kt LLJ is forecast to develop, and this will keep the 
PBL sufficiently mixed to keep overnight lows from dropping further 
than they otherwise would.  However, hi-res models suggest that, 
while remaining above-normal, they'll be a couple of degrees cooler 
than last night. 

Sunday, the ridge develops into Oklahoma, allowing minimum 
thicknesses over West texas and Southeast New Mexico, yielding 
afternoon highs only 3-4F above normal.  Rain chances look almost 
identical to today's, w/the surface trough and upslope flow 
persisting.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through  Friday)
Issued at 144 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

We will keep the same pattern highlighted in the short term forecast 
as the upper ridge continues to dominate the earlier part of long 
term. Temperatures Monday-Wednesday will be relatively steady with 
high pressure over the Mississippi Valley and southerly surface flow 
over the region. This will usher in upper 90s for most of the region 
and triple digits along the river valleys and NE Permian Basin. The 
better moisture will be further west, so storm chances in this 
period will be confined across the higher terrain of SE New 
Mexico, the Davis Mnts, and surrounding foothills where some 
isolated convection will be possible in the afternoon hours.

Things look to shake up slightly later in the week as the ridge 
shifts west and an upper trough sweeps across northern CONUS, 
bringing northwesterly flow aloft. A cold front looks to move down 
towards the region late in the week, but models differ this far out 
on whether this cold front actually makes it to our CWA or gets hung 
up to the north. Regardless, temperatures should cool at least a few 
degrees, possibly bringing us down to near-normal for the first time 
in weeks! If the front does indeed make it here, thunderstorm 
chances will increase Friday and Saturday for much of the region. 
This currently looks to be the best chance for any precipitation in 
the forecast package...stay tuned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               75 100  75 101 /   0   0   0   0 
Carlsbad                 74  98  73  99 /  10  20  20  10 
Dryden                   75  99  75 100 /   0   0   0  10 
Fort Stockton            74  97  73  98 /   0  10   0  10 
Guadalupe Pass           70  89  70  90 /  20  20  30  20 
Hobbs                    70  96  70  98 /   0  10  10   0 
Marfa                    64  92  63  92 /  10  30  20  20 
Midland Intl Airport     74  98  74  99 /   0   0   0   0 
Odessa                   75  98  75  99 /   0   0   0   0 
Wink                     75 100  75 101 /   0  10  10  10 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...80