712 
FXUS63 KMPX 220546
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1246 AM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022

.UPDATED for 06Z Aviation Discussion... 
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Thu Jul 21 2022

KEY MESSAGE:

- Scattered thunderstorms likely on Saturday, with severe weather
  possible. Main threat is damaging wind, but hail, heavy rain, and a
  few tornadoes are also possible.

Today and Friday...Early afternoon satellite imagery with surface obs
and Rap13 pressure analysis showed mostly clear skies beneath a
surface ridge of high pressure. Upstream another weak disturbance 
was sparking some rain showers across North Dakota, and this will 
move through overnight and bring scattered rain showers and a chance 
for thunderstorms. Confidence is pretty high on the development of 
these showers, but the coverage will be scarce, so only went with a 
20 to 40 percent chance of precipitation for any given hour. These 
will shift southeast, and Friday is looking like another dry day 
across the region with decreasing clouds and light winds. 

Friday Night through Saturday Night...An westerly jet will strengthen
as a low amplitude shortwave trough moves across the region.
Convection is expected across the Dakotas Friday night, and this
should shift eastward on Saturday. The HiRes models are starting to
capture this event, but uncertainty remains on the timing and
evolution of the storms for Saturday. Based off some of the last few
hours of the HiRes models, storms should move eastward Saturday
morning. These storms could strengthen on Saturday and move eastward
as instability builds ahead of them, or they could gradually weaken,
while another round develops further west Saturday, strengthens, and
races eastward. Regardless of the scenario, the risk remains for
severe thunderstorms on Saturday. Given the deep layer shear, the
main threat is damaging wind, but hail, heavy rain, and even a few
tornadoes appear possible. 

Sunday through Thursday...These storms will move eastward, and a cold
front will usher in cooler and drier air for Sunday. Highs will be
in the upper 70s to low 80s. Dry weather will continue for Monday as
well. On Tuesday another system will bring chances for thunderstorms
across the Upper Midwest. Confidence on timing is still uncertain, 
so the duration of the rainfall chances is likely too long of a 
timeframe. Looking ahead, conditions will dry out again toward the 
end of the week behind the departing system. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022

Mid level clouds will continue to increase from the west, followed 
by a few showers and thunderstorms overnight, especially across 
southern and western MN. Shower coverage east of AXN/RWF/MKT is more
uncertain so kept any mention out there for now. Winds will weaken 
and shift south southwest tonight before a cold front veers winds 
northwest Friday afternoon.

KMSP...Any potential for shower or storm activity near MSP appears 
low enough to keep any mention out of the TAF for now. 

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sat...TSRA likely. VFR outside of TSRA. Wind SW at 5-10 kts. 
Sun...VFR. Wind NW at 10-20 kts. 
Mon...VFR. Wind NW at 05 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JRB 
AVIATION...BPH