438 
FXUS63 KBIS 212345
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
645 PM CDT Thu Jul 21 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 636 PM CDT Thu Jul 21 2022

Severe thunderstorms are making their through Emmons, McIntosh,
and Dickey Counties. Hail up to golf balls are expected with these
storms. The storms should be out of our area by 8pm CDT. More
storms could fire up between Dickinson and Bismarck, although the possibility
is around 40%. Updated PoPs and sky cover to adjust for the 
current conditions with the thunderstorms. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Thu Jul 21 2022

Thunderstorms are expected to form across much of south central 
North Dakota this afternoon. Above normal temperatures are
forecast for tomorrow afternoon with an isolated chance of severe
weather across central North Dakota.

Currently, water vapor imagery shows an upper level wave moving
over north central North Dakota. The wave is responsible for 
ongoing precipitation south of Minot. A weak front is also making 
it's way through the northwestern portion of the state. Ahead of 
the front a cumulus field is beginning to form. Thunderstorms are 
expected to initiate later this afternoon from the aforementioned 
forcing mechanisms. The environment does support storms with 40kts
of effective shear, however instability is reduced due to the 
drier air mass in place. Dew points consist of the low to upper 
50s and are expected to diminish a bit more with afternoon mixing.
Thunderstorms should remain sub-severe this afternoon.

Tomorrow an upper level ridge will build over the region brining
an increased heights aloft. Therefore, a strengthened low-level 
thermal ridge will increase temperatures into the upper 90s across
the southwest part of the state. An upper level short wave will 
move through the region tomorrow evening bringing a chance for an 
isolated strong to severe thunderstorm. CAMs are highlighting 
convection moving out of Canada into Bottineau county tomorrow 
afternoon/evening. While another area of convection is supposed to
build across the southern portion of the state early Saturday 
morning.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Thu Jul 21 2022

Northwesterly flow aloft will persist through the weekend with 
multiple waves bring precipitation over the weekend and early next 
week. Below normal temperatures are expected this weekend through 
mid next week.

Upper level ridging over the Desert Southwest is going to amply 
ridging over the Northern Rockies resulting in northwesterly flow 
across the Northern Plains. Saturday an upper level short wave is 
forecast to move through the region brining scattered showers 
through the morning hours and thunderstorms through the afternoon.
A cold front is also forecast to move into the region early 
Saturday morning bringing forth a cooler air mass into the region.
This will help high temperatures stay in the upper 70s to lower 
80s through the weekend.

A weak ridging will then begin to build over the Northern Plains 
Monday shifting a weak low level thermal ridge eastward. In return
temperatures are forecast to warm in the mid to upper 80s Monday 
afternoon. However, a short wave trough will dig into the Northern
Rockies Tuesday bringing rain across the state. Precipiation and 
a cooler air mass are going to help keep temperatures below 
normal, but in the extend ensembles build a strong ridge out over 
the Great Basin. An eastern progression of this ridge could lead 
to above normal temperatures for the beginning of August.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Thu Jul 21 2022

VFR conditions through the period. Severe storms are moving off to
the southeast, south of KBIS and KJMS. Winds will be under 10
knots overnight before gusting to 15 knots from the southwest
Friday afternoon. 

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...Johnson
LONG TERM...Johnson
AVIATION...Smith