566 
FXUS63 KEAX 210859
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
359 AM CDT Thu Jul 21 2022

.Discussion...
Issued at 354 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2022

Key Points:

- Well above normal temperatures continue into the weekend.

- The next best chance for precipitation will be Sunday into Monday.

Discussion:

Temperatures will start out fairly nice this morning with readings 
in the mid and upper 60s; but as diurnal mixing commences, 
temperatures will quickly begin to warm. A very dry airmass remains 
entrenched over the region, and with steep lapse rates helping to 
mix down additional dry air, dewpoints may fall into the mid and 
upper 50s at times this afternoon south of the Missouri River. So 
while it will be hot again today, the lack of humidity will keep 
heat indices in check with readings near air temperature readings;
therefore, have opted to forego any heat headlines for today.

Surface high pressure will gradually shift off to the east today 
with winds becoming more southwesterly by this evening. This will 
help to advect moisture up from the Gulf on Friday and we should 
start to see dewpoints slowly increase Friday afternoon. The 
question will be how quickly that moisture starts to work into the 
region. However, with the slight increase in low-level moisture, 
heat indices will probably be bumped up enough to consider heat 
headlines for Friday and/or Saturday. As we have seen the past 
several days, the warmest temperatures will be south of Hwy 36 with 
the best chance to hit triple digit temperatures south of the river.

Sunday's temperatures will be tied to a cold front that will push 
through during the day. Areas to the south of the front could see 
temperatures push into the lower 100s with areas north of the front 
at least 5 to 10 degrees cooler.

Several shortwave troughs rounding the ridge will be the main focus 
for precipitation chances. The first of these waves will spark off 
convection across Nebraska and S. Dakota late tonight with the 
complex progged to move southeastward Friday morning with the 
remnants working into northern Missouri before dissipating.
However, the best chance for precipitation will be as the 
aforementioned cold front moves into the area Sunday and Monday. 
As the low-level jet strengthens Sunday night, storms should 
develop near the front on the nose of the LLJ and linger into 
Monday morning. The front will stall and provide a focus for 
additional chances for showers and thunderstorms later in the day.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1122 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2022

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Winds will 
be light and variable overnight and pick up from a westerly 
direction tomorrow afternoon as the high pressure moves to our 
southeast.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...PietrychaP
Aviation...CDB/RC