161 
FXUS64 KAMA 050827
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
327 AM CDT Tue Jul 5 2022

.DISCUSSION...Today through Monday...

Precip chances continue with Tuesday through Thursday looking the
best for seeing rain across the area.

Radar this morning shows a complex of storms moving northward into
Parmer County. IR satellite shows the complex to have warming 
cloud tops. Thus, the complex should die off as it arrives into 
the Panhandles. The storms around the Southern Plains during the 
evening provided many outflow boundaries that now lie around the 
area. Surface observations also show a trough axis from the
northwestern OK Panhandle down southwest toward Clovis, NM.
With all the boundaries and trough axis, storms firing up this
afternoon will have several places to form. There are differences
between short range models though. The differences between where
models place the surface low will affect the position of the
trough axis. The differences in where models place the upper level
high will affect where upward and downward motions will be. Have
kept precip chances for today around 20-30 percent for most of the
area. Wednesday has some similar precip chances except for less of
the area in the southeast. Models again have variations that will
bring difficulties in forecasting locations of storms. By
Thursday, a cold front pushes into the Panhandles and ups the
precip chances into the 40 percent range. By the week's end and
the weekend, the high pressure system shifts back to the west and
sits overhead, limiting precip chances. The beginning of next week
looks to see the high continue to shift westward, bringing
northwest flow to the Panhandles. This will bring precip chances
back to the area as storms come off the mountains. With weak
steering flow, storms will be fairly slow movers. With inverted-V
soundings, DCAPE will be high over the week and bring chances of
isolated strong winds. 

Beat

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                98  72  98  72 /  10  30  10  10 
Beaver OK                 102  74 101  73 /  20  20  10  20 
Boise City OK              97  68  96  66 /  10  20  20  20 
Borger TX                 102  75 102  74 /  10  20  10  10 
Boys Ranch TX             100  73 101  73 /  10  30  20  10 
Canyon TX                  97  70  98  71 /  20  30  10  10 
Clarendon TX               98  75  99  75 /   5  10   5   5 
Dalhart TX                 98  69  97  67 /  10  20  20  10 
Guymon OK                 102  72 100  70 /  10  20  10  20 
Hereford TX                98  71  99  70 /  20  30  10  10 
Lipscomb TX               101  75 102  74 /  10  10   5  10 
Pampa TX                   98  73  98  72 /  10  20   5  10 
Shamrock TX                99  74 101  74 /   0   5   5   5 
Wellington TX             100  75 101  75 /   0   5   0   0 

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

16/16