502 
FXUS64 KAMA 300526
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1226 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected throughout the 06Z TAF period. Winds
will be out of the south and southwest at 10 to 20 kts with gusts
to near 30 kts are possible. Skies will be partly to mostly clear. 

Meccariello

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 205 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022/ 

SHORT TERM (Today through tomorrow night)...

Overview:
A relatively "quiet" day weather-wise is expected across the
Panhandles with plenty of sunshine and highs returning closer to
normal around the 90s. Our warming trend continues tomorrow with
highs in the mid to upper 90s, but a few locations may reach low
end triple digits. The Palo Duro Canyon is forecast to be around
101. There is a low end chance for precipitation Thursday evening
in the far northwest, but the rainfall may end up stopping before
it actually reaches the Panhandles. Currently not expecting any
rainfall chances outside of the western OK Panhandle tomorrow
night, but even those are low end chances at this time.

Further Details:
An area of high pressure at 500mb will slowly migrate eastward 
through tomorrow night. During this time the H5 high should 
suppress most of our weather chances with the center being close 
to the Panhandles. Not seeing much in the vorticity fields for any
potential impacts here across the Panhandles. Forecast soundings 
indicate a very dry column, so outside of a few clouds here and 
there we are not expecting much cloud cover in the short term 
either. Its not until Thursday night we start to see clouds 
increase from the north/northwest as a prefrontal trough swings 
through. Models vary with the handling of the prefrontal trough 
axis and whether or not it stalls before reaching the Panhandles. 
Same can be said about the cold front trailing behind the trough. 
Precipitation chances will be directly correlated to the 
advancement of these surface features and whether we can tap into 
any upper level support from a weak embedded shortwave. That said,
precipitation chances may very well end up better the following 
day as the front makes more southward progression. 

Guerrero

LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...

Precip chances persist through the extended, with a possibly dry
4th of July.

Friday morning looks to start off with a cold front already
starting to sag into the Panhandles. The front looks to stall and
possibly retreat a bit. Westerly flow aloft due to the high 
pressure across the far south will kick off storms in NM from the
upslope flow. The position of the front will dictate where storms
coming off the mountains will cross the Panhandles. The front may
add additional lift for most storms to form. Saturday will be
similar to Friday with thunderstorms coming off the mountains and
making their way into the Panhandles. There may be a leftover
boundary from the previous day's convection that can provide a
focus for storms. Mid-level shortwaves look to continue riding
around the high pressure and bring more thunderstorm chances to
the area Sunday. Independence Day may see the high pressure center 
shift just enough away from the Panhandles to leave us dry.
However, some ensemble members do bring precip chances to the area
still with today's run. Thus will continue monitoring for changes
in trends. By Tuesday evening, another trough axis approaches the
Panhandles and may bring some precip chances back to the west. 

Beat

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.

$$

29/2