National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDABQ
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDABQ
Product Timestamp: 2022-06-21 21:27 UTC
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083 FXUS65 KABQ 212127 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 327 PM MDT Tue Jun 21 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Monsoon moisture has increased over a large portion of northern and central New Mexico, and this has led to widespread rain and also areas of showers and thunderstorms. This trend will continue tonight with rain generally focusing from the southwest and south central mountains northward over the Rio Grande valley and the northern mountains of New Mexico. Areas of locally heavy rainfall will be possible overnight, and a threat for flash flooding will continue, especially over recent wildfire burn scars which will be most vulnerable. Into Wednesday, a high concentration of showers and thunderstorms will be over the northwestern half of New Mexico where rainfall chances will be highest. The chances for rain and thunderstorms will lower into Thursday and Friday, but scattered storms are still expected over western to north central areas of the state each day. A cold front is then expected to bring additional moisture and lead to additional storms in northeastern New Mexico by Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)... With one disturbance gradually exiting northeast areas this evening, another disturbance embedded in the monsoon flow will track northward through eastern AZ and western NM tonight keeping the flash flood risk going. The greatest risk now appears to be over and below recent burn scars, and west of the central mountain chain where the sun has either been out or will soon be coming out to destabilize the atmosphere. Abundant moisture is in place with PWATs forecast to vary from 0.9-1.4" from the continental divide eastward by this evening. High res ensembles like the NBM and HREF show a broad area of light to moderate rain spreading north northeastward from the southwest mountains across the central valley, central mountains, and northern mountains late this evening through Wednesday morning bringing many locations a quarter to over a half inch of rain with locally higher amounts. Wednesday will feature some drier air wrapping around the Great Plains upper level high pressure system and over south central and eastern areas with a notable decrease in precipitation coverage and intensity there. Meanwhile, the monsoon plume looks to stretch across the western mountains and north central mountains by afternoon and evening. Will let the night shift consider where another Flash Flood Watch may be needed based on antecedent moisture from today's precipitation and the latest high resolution model guidance. High temperatures are forecast to climb a few to several degrees across southern and eastern areas on Wednesday compared to today's readings, while falling a few to several degrees across the northwest. Nonetheless, the entire forecast area will continue to experience readings below normal. LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... High pressure aloft will nudge westward on Thursday, setting up a centroid in west TX while a weak upper level trough stays over CA. This will wrap additional drier air into south central and south eastern NM while shoving the best plume of subtropical moisture into southern AZ and Sonora. PWATs would still remain rather high (between 0.9 and 1.1 inch) over a large portion of western NM, and thunderstorm movement would likely slow down to 5 to 10 mph from the south or west. Storms would be most common along the Continental Divide moving into portions of northwestern and perhaps north central areas of the state, although PWATs would be slightly lower in north central areas. On Friday, the CA trough will get lost as it translates eastward over the Rockies and a new weak upper high centroid is expected to develop near the boot heel of NM. This will keep steering juicy air (PWATs of 0.75 to 1.0 inch) over much of western and portions of north central NM. Sluggish storms are again expected to favor the Continental Divide Friday afternoon, leaning and drifting northeastward to the northern mountains toward the evening. A wave moving into Saskatchewan and Manitoba will send a cold front southward down the plains Saturday. This front will enter northeastern NM by late in the day, advecting more moisture into the area while also providing surface convergence that will help initiate an uptick in thunderstorms over northeastern zones. Some of the deeper moisture in AZ and Sonora could also seep into western NM, so overall an increase in coverage and rainfall intensity and efficiency seems likely Saturday. The other notable concern would be the gap wind (20 to 30 mph sustained with higher gusts) that is expected Saturday night into Sunday morning as the front advances into the Rio Grande valley. A synoptic easterly or southeasterly surface wind would likely be established over most of NM into Sunday, offering a roundabout, but persistent, fetch of moisture feeding into the area while also inducing some upslope on east faces of both the Continental Divide and the central mountain chain. Scattered to numerous storms will be possible over the entire forecast area Sunday, and this trend will likely persist into Monday and Tuesday of next week as high pressure slowly becomes established northwest of the Four Corners with plenty of moisture left for recycling within NM. 44/52 && .FIRE WEATHER... No critical fire weather conditions are expected for the next 7 days. A rich monsoon moisture plume will stream over the typically favored region of western and north central NM with daily rounds of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms there. Some storms will be capable of locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding. The least favored area for precipitation (after today) will be the far eastern plains, until Saturday when a moist backdoor front will dive southwestward through the east increasing precipitation chances there and the coverage of potentially heavy rainfall over the northern and perhaps central mountains. The front will push through gaps in the central mountain chain Saturday night with a gusty east wind below canyons opening into the central valley. The front should reach the AZ border by Sunday morning, setting the stage for a potentially widespread flash flood risk on Sunday afternoon and evening. Models are depicting less intense rainfall overall for early in the coming work week, but rain chances look to continue for the entire forecast area (especially the west central and northwest mountains). With all the moisture in place high temperatures will continue to be well below normal areawide each day, except for a little above normal along the eastern border of the forecast area Thursday and Friday. 44 && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE Widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue today and tonight. Areas of MVFR conditions are expected east of the central mountain chain, especially tonight when pockets of IFR conditions will also be possible. Showers and thunderstorms will be capable of wet microbursts and erratic wind gusts around 45 kt mainly west of the central mountain chain this afternoon and evening. 44 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 61 77 58 86 / 20 60 50 30 Dulce........................... 47 71 48 80 / 30 80 60 30 Cuba............................ 53 70 53 79 / 50 80 60 40 Gallup.......................... 54 81 53 84 / 40 80 60 50 El Morro........................ 54 73 54 79 / 70 80 60 50 Grants.......................... 55 73 52 80 / 70 80 60 60 Quemado......................... 56 77 55 81 / 80 80 60 60 Magdalena....................... 59 73 59 80 / 90 80 30 40 Datil........................... 56 71 56 79 / 60 80 50 60 Reserve......................... 51 83 51 87 / 80 80 50 60 Glenwood........................ 62 85 63 90 / 90 60 50 50 Chama........................... 43 66 45 75 / 40 90 60 40 Los Alamos...................... 57 67 58 77 / 70 90 50 40 Pecos........................... 54 72 56 80 / 80 80 40 40 Cerro/Questa.................... 44 66 46 77 / 40 90 60 40 Red River....................... 42 62 43 72 / 40 90 60 50 Angel Fire...................... 43 62 43 74 / 50 90 50 40 Taos............................ 51 69 49 81 / 40 80 50 30 Mora............................ 49 69 48 78 / 70 80 50 40 Espanola........................ 59 74 58 84 / 60 90 50 30 Santa Fe........................ 57 70 58 80 / 80 80 50 40 Santa Fe Airport................ 56 72 56 82 / 80 80 40 30 Albuquerque Foothills........... 61 77 64 84 / 80 80 40 30 Albuquerque Heights............. 61 77 61 85 / 80 90 40 30 Albuquerque Valley.............. 61 79 61 87 / 80 90 40 40 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 61 77 61 85 / 80 90 40 30 Belen........................... 60 80 59 88 / 90 80 30 40 Bernalillo...................... 61 79 61 87 / 80 90 40 30 Bosque Farms.................... 59 79 58 87 / 80 80 40 40 Corrales........................ 61 78 61 86 / 80 90 40 30 Los Lunas....................... 60 80 59 87 / 80 80 40 40 Placitas........................ 61 73 61 84 / 80 80 40 30 Rio Rancho...................... 61 77 61 85 / 80 90 40 30 Socorro......................... 63 82 64 89 / 90 60 30 30 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 57 69 59 79 / 80 80 40 30 Tijeras......................... 57 73 58 82 / 80 80 40 30 Edgewood........................ 54 74 53 81 / 80 70 40 30 Moriarty/Estancia............... 52 76 51 83 / 80 60 40 30 Clines Corners.................. 52 73 53 79 / 80 50 30 30 Mountainair..................... 55 75 54 81 / 90 60 30 30 Gran Quivira.................... 56 77 56 82 / 80 50 30 30 Carrizozo....................... 61 80 61 84 / 60 20 20 30 Ruidoso......................... 54 74 56 78 / 60 20 20 30 Capulin......................... 52 73 54 84 / 60 70 40 30 Raton........................... 52 75 53 87 / 50 70 30 30 Springer........................ 54 75 54 87 / 70 70 30 30 Las Vegas....................... 53 73 53 82 / 70 60 30 30 Clayton......................... 59 83 61 91 / 60 40 30 10 Roy............................. 57 78 58 86 / 60 40 30 20 Conchas......................... 62 85 64 93 / 60 30 20 10 Santa Rosa...................... 60 82 61 89 / 60 20 20 20 Tucumcari....................... 64 90 66 96 / 40 20 20 5 Clovis.......................... 63 89 65 92 / 20 10 20 5 Portales........................ 64 91 66 94 / 20 10 20 5 Fort Sumner..................... 64 88 65 93 / 50 20 20 10 Roswell......................... 67 93 68 97 / 30 10 5 20 Picacho......................... 59 83 60 88 / 50 10 10 30 Elk............................. 56 82 56 85 / 50 10 10 20 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through late tonight for the following zones... NMZ203>229-232-233-239>241. && $$