AFOS product AFDABQ
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Product Timestamp: 2022-06-21 21:27 UTC

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083 
FXUS65 KABQ 212127
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
327 PM MDT Tue Jun 21 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Monsoon moisture has increased over a large portion of northern and
central New Mexico, and this has led to widespread rain and also
areas of showers and thunderstorms. This trend will continue tonight 
with rain generally focusing from the southwest and south central 
mountains northward over the Rio Grande valley and the northern 
mountains of New Mexico. Areas of locally heavy rainfall will be 
possible overnight, and a threat for flash flooding will continue, 
especially over recent wildfire burn scars which will be most 
vulnerable. Into Wednesday, a high concentration of showers and 
thunderstorms will be over the northwestern half of New Mexico where 
rainfall chances will be highest. The chances for rain and 
thunderstorms will lower into Thursday and Friday, but scattered 
storms are still expected over western to north central areas of the 
state each day. A cold front is then expected to bring additional 
moisture and lead to additional storms in northeastern New Mexico by 
Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
With one disturbance gradually exiting northeast areas this evening,
another disturbance embedded in the monsoon flow will track 
northward through eastern AZ and western NM tonight keeping the flash
flood risk going. The greatest risk now appears to be over and below
recent burn scars, and west of the central mountain chain where the 
sun has either been out or will soon be coming out to destabilize the
atmosphere. Abundant moisture is in place with PWATs forecast to 
vary from 0.9-1.4" from the continental divide eastward by this 
evening. High res ensembles like the NBM and HREF show a broad area 
of light to moderate rain spreading north northeastward from the 
southwest mountains across the central valley, central mountains, and
northern mountains late this evening through Wednesday morning 
bringing many locations a quarter to over a half inch of rain with 
locally higher amounts.

Wednesday will feature some drier air wrapping around the Great 
Plains upper level high pressure system and over south central and 
eastern areas with a notable decrease in precipitation coverage and 
intensity there.  Meanwhile, the monsoon plume looks to stretch 
across the western mountains and north central mountains by 
afternoon and evening.  Will let the night shift consider where 
another Flash Flood Watch may be needed based on antecedent moisture 
from today's precipitation and the latest high resolution model 
guidance.  High temperatures are forecast to climb a few to several 
degrees across southern and eastern areas on Wednesday compared to 
today's readings, while falling a few to several degrees across the 
northwest. Nonetheless, the entire forecast area will continue to 
experience readings below normal.

LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
High pressure aloft will nudge westward on Thursday, setting up a
centroid in west TX while a weak upper level trough stays over CA. 
This will wrap additional drier air into south central and south 
eastern NM while shoving the best plume of subtropical moisture into 
southern AZ and Sonora. PWATs would still remain rather high 
(between 0.9 and 1.1 inch) over a large portion of western NM, and 
thunderstorm movement would likely slow down to 5 to 10 mph from the 
south or west. Storms would be most common along the Continental 
Divide moving into portions of northwestern and perhaps north 
central areas of the state, although PWATs would be slightly lower in
north central areas.

On Friday, the CA trough will get lost as it translates eastward over
the Rockies and a new weak upper high centroid is expected to 
develop near the boot heel of NM. This will keep steering juicy air
(PWATs of 0.75 to 1.0 inch) over much of western and portions of 
north central NM. Sluggish storms are again expected to favor the 
Continental Divide Friday afternoon, leaning and drifting 
northeastward to the northern mountains toward the evening. 

A wave moving into Saskatchewan and Manitoba will send a cold front
southward down the plains Saturday. This front will enter
northeastern NM by late in the day, advecting more moisture into the
area while also providing surface convergence that will help initiate
an uptick in thunderstorms over northeastern zones. Some of the
deeper moisture in AZ and Sonora could also seep into western NM, so
overall an increase in coverage and rainfall intensity and efficiency
seems likely Saturday. The other notable concern would be the gap
wind (20 to 30 mph sustained with higher gusts) that is expected 
Saturday night into Sunday morning as the front advances into the Rio
Grande valley. 

A synoptic easterly or southeasterly surface wind would likely be
established over most of NM into Sunday, offering a roundabout, but 
persistent, fetch of moisture feeding into the area while also
inducing some upslope on east faces of both the Continental Divide 
and the central mountain chain. Scattered to numerous storms will be 
possible over the entire forecast area Sunday, and this trend will 
likely persist into Monday and Tuesday of next week as high pressure 
slowly becomes established northwest of the Four Corners with plenty 
of moisture left for recycling within NM.

44/52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No critical fire weather conditions are expected for the next 7 
days. A rich monsoon moisture plume will stream over the typically 
favored region of western and north central NM with daily rounds of 
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms there. Some storms 
will be capable of locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding. The 
least favored area for precipitation (after today) will be the far 
eastern plains, until Saturday when a moist backdoor front will dive 
southwestward through the east increasing precipitation chances 
there and the coverage of potentially heavy rainfall over the 
northern and perhaps central mountains. The front will push through 
gaps in the central mountain chain Saturday night with a gusty east 
wind below canyons opening into the central valley. The front should 
reach the AZ border by Sunday morning, setting the stage for a 
potentially widespread flash flood risk on Sunday afternoon and 
evening. Models are depicting less intense rainfall overall for 
early in the coming work week, but rain chances look to continue for 
the entire forecast area (especially the west central and northwest 
mountains). With all the moisture in place high temperatures will 
continue to be well below normal areawide each day, except for a 
little above normal along the eastern border of the forecast area 
Thursday and Friday.

44

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE 
Widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue today and tonight.
Areas of MVFR conditions are expected east of the central mountain
chain, especially tonight when pockets of IFR conditions will also be
possible. Showers and thunderstorms will be capable of wet 
microbursts and erratic wind gusts around 45 kt mainly west of the 
central mountain chain this afternoon and evening.

44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  61  77  58  86 /  20  60  50  30 
Dulce...........................  47  71  48  80 /  30  80  60  30 
Cuba............................  53  70  53  79 /  50  80  60  40 
Gallup..........................  54  81  53  84 /  40  80  60  50 
El Morro........................  54  73  54  79 /  70  80  60  50 
Grants..........................  55  73  52  80 /  70  80  60  60 
Quemado.........................  56  77  55  81 /  80  80  60  60 
Magdalena.......................  59  73  59  80 /  90  80  30  40 
Datil...........................  56  71  56  79 /  60  80  50  60 
Reserve.........................  51  83  51  87 /  80  80  50  60 
Glenwood........................  62  85  63  90 /  90  60  50  50 
Chama...........................  43  66  45  75 /  40  90  60  40 
Los Alamos......................  57  67  58  77 /  70  90  50  40 
Pecos...........................  54  72  56  80 /  80  80  40  40 
Cerro/Questa....................  44  66  46  77 /  40  90  60  40 
Red River.......................  42  62  43  72 /  40  90  60  50 
Angel Fire......................  43  62  43  74 /  50  90  50  40 
Taos............................  51  69  49  81 /  40  80  50  30 
Mora............................  49  69  48  78 /  70  80  50  40 
Espanola........................  59  74  58  84 /  60  90  50  30 
Santa Fe........................  57  70  58  80 /  80  80  50  40 
Santa Fe Airport................  56  72  56  82 /  80  80  40  30 
Albuquerque Foothills...........  61  77  64  84 /  80  80  40  30 
Albuquerque Heights.............  61  77  61  85 /  80  90  40  30 
Albuquerque Valley..............  61  79  61  87 /  80  90  40  40 
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  61  77  61  85 /  80  90  40  30 
Belen...........................  60  80  59  88 /  90  80  30  40 
Bernalillo......................  61  79  61  87 /  80  90  40  30 
Bosque Farms....................  59  79  58  87 /  80  80  40  40 
Corrales........................  61  78  61  86 /  80  90  40  30 
Los Lunas.......................  60  80  59  87 /  80  80  40  40 
Placitas........................  61  73  61  84 /  80  80  40  30 
Rio Rancho......................  61  77  61  85 /  80  90  40  30 
Socorro.........................  63  82  64  89 /  90  60  30  30 
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  57  69  59  79 /  80  80  40  30 
Tijeras.........................  57  73  58  82 /  80  80  40  30 
Edgewood........................  54  74  53  81 /  80  70  40  30 
Moriarty/Estancia...............  52  76  51  83 /  80  60  40  30 
Clines Corners..................  52  73  53  79 /  80  50  30  30 
Mountainair.....................  55  75  54  81 /  90  60  30  30 
Gran Quivira....................  56  77  56  82 /  80  50  30  30 
Carrizozo.......................  61  80  61  84 /  60  20  20  30 
Ruidoso.........................  54  74  56  78 /  60  20  20  30 
Capulin.........................  52  73  54  84 /  60  70  40  30 
Raton...........................  52  75  53  87 /  50  70  30  30 
Springer........................  54  75  54  87 /  70  70  30  30 
Las Vegas.......................  53  73  53  82 /  70  60  30  30 
Clayton.........................  59  83  61  91 /  60  40  30  10 
Roy.............................  57  78  58  86 /  60  40  30  20 
Conchas.........................  62  85  64  93 /  60  30  20  10 
Santa Rosa......................  60  82  61  89 /  60  20  20  20 
Tucumcari.......................  64  90  66  96 /  40  20  20   5 
Clovis..........................  63  89  65  92 /  20  10  20   5 
Portales........................  64  91  66  94 /  20  10  20   5 
Fort Sumner.....................  64  88  65  93 /  50  20  20  10 
Roswell.........................  67  93  68  97 /  30  10   5  20 
Picacho.........................  59  83  60  88 /  50  10  10  30 
Elk.............................  56  82  56  85 /  50  10  10  20 

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for the following zones... 
NMZ203>229-232-233-239>241.

&&

$$