181 
FXUS65 KBOI 182017
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
217 PM MDT Sat Jun 18 2022

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday night...Showers with isolated
thunderstorms will continue to impact the region this afternoon
and evening under the influence of current low pressure. High 
resolution models continue to indicate the potential for activity 
to develop and move through the Treasure Valley through the 
afternoon. The low continues its slow progression eastward on
Sunday with continued showers noted, with the best potential for
activity noted across southwestern Idaho. In addition,
temperatures are expected to continue to cool. The system will
begin to lift northeast late Sunday and through Monday, with
continued moisture producing showers across the central Idaho
mountains. Conditions continue to move eastward Monday night with
drier conditions expected by Monday night. Periods of gusty wind
expected, with the strongest winds anticipated across the Magic 
Valley on Sunday with lesser gusts on Monday. Temperatures are
expected to be around 15 degrees below normal on Sunday, with
values warming a few degrees for Monday to be around 10 degrees
below normal.  

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...Dry and seasonable 
conditions will continue through Thursday under zonal flow aloft. 
Temperatures will peak in the low 90s across many lower valley 
locations by mid-week, and are forecast to remain several degrees 
above normal through the period. An upper ridge is now expected to 
stay south of the Intermountain West rather than build into the 
region, as confirmed by the latest ensemble forecasts and cluster 
analysis. Weak flow aloft will maintain mild and dry conditions 
through next weekend, decreasing the chance for high-based afternoon 
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...Generally VFR with localized MVFR-IFR in isolated 
shower and thunderstorm activity over higher terrain. Areas of 
mountain obscuration. Activity tapering off this evening. Surface 
winds: NW 5-15kt with gusts to 25 kt. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: S-SW 
10-20kt.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

www.weather.gov/Boise
www.facebook.com/NWSBoise
www.twitter.com/NWSBoise

SHORT TERM...KB
LONG TERM....AL
AVIATION.....AL