027 
FXUS62 KKEY 180930
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
530 AM EDT Sat Jun 18 2022

.DISCUSSION...
Water vapor imagery highlights a large, long amplitude mean layer
ridge over the central United States. A small mid to upper level 
cyclone is centered near Andros, amplifying a narrow current of 
northwesterlies across the Keys. The surface gradient is weak 
across South Florida and the Keys, although a narrow ridge axis 
survives across central Florida. Southeast winds are 5 knots or 
less at the marine observation platforms. Temperatures range from 
75 to 84, with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s. Skies are clear 
and the KBYX radar detects isolated showers across the Straits. 
The island chain is rain-free since last evening. 

.FORECAST...
The mean layer ridge over the CONUS will lumber to the southeast
and remain relatively intact today through Wednesday. By the end
of the forecast period (THU, FRI), ridging will erode, leaving
neutral mean layer heights across the Gulf of Mexico and southeast
US. Light breezes today through Monday will freshen from the
northeast to east Tuesday and Tuesday night as the low level
gradient tightens. Moderate breezes will persist into Wednesday
and Thursday, tending to turn to the east to southeast by Thursday
or Friday. Forecast soundings portray relatively moist and
unstable profiles for much of the next week, although the best
chances for rain/thunder will be Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday.
Sunday will rely on mesoscale process both along the Keys and
adjacent to the Mainland. Monday and Tuesday will feature 
confluence in the east-northeasterlies as the anticyclone to the 
north squeezes against the festering surface boundaries sagging 
to the south across the western North Atlantic, and complicated 
by the antsy tropics trying to spread northwest across Cuba and 
the Cay Sal Bank. For the next several evenings, despite how 
mesoscale processes play out in the afternoon, and whether or not 
the confluence takes shape, South Florida will send afternoon 
storms to the the southwest towards the Keys. Aside from a few 
tweaks to the POPs, there are no significant changes to the 
forecast with this cycle. 

&&

.MARINE...
There are no watches, warnings, or advisories currently in effect
for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. Light to gentle 
breezes will persist across the coastal waters of the Florida Keys
today through Monday. These light breezes will favor thundery 
rains each afternoon. Easterly breezes will freshen Tuesday and 
Tuesday night as a ridge axis builds across the western North 
Atlantic and Florida.

&&

.AVIATION...
Light southeast breezes will turn to the south to southwest later
this morning at the EYW and MTH terminals. Light northeast
steering will favor afternoon cloud lines near EYW, although MOS
guidance suggests chances today are not as good as the past
several days. Storms will roll to the southwest this evening from
the Mainland, and both terminals could have showers and storms in
the vicinity before midnight. Confidence in either scenario is
low and are not advertised in the current TAFs. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  90  80  89  79 / 20 20 40 30 
Marathon  91  80  93  79 / 30 20 40 30 

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...CLR
Aviation/Nowcasts....KR
Data Acquisition.....SMS

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