892 
FXUS64 KMOB 092021
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
321 PM CDT Thu Jun 9 2022

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Friday/...Northwesterly flow aloft will 
continue over our region through the period as an upper-level ridge 
remains anchored over the Southwestern US and upper-level troughing 
remains over the Northeast US. By Thursday evening, a stout 
shortwave is expected to develop over the Oklahoma/Kansas/Texas 
region. This shortwave will quickly move southeastward throughout 
the day on Friday, reaching and passing over our region by Friday 
evening. At the surface, low pressure over the Northeast US will 
continue lifting northeast. Additionally, an associated E-W oriented 
frontal boundary remains draped over Northern Alabama/Mississippi. 
This boundary may try to sag southward throughout the period, but at 
this point, it looks to remain to the north of our region.  

For this afternoon, showers and thunderstorms are developing 
along a southward-moving outflow boundary, produced by earlier 
storms. Expect coverage to increase through the afternoon as this 
outflow begins interacting with the sea breeze boundary. PWATs 
remain high across the area, with values ranging from 1.5 inches 
over northern portions and around 2 inches by the coast. Strong 
daytime heating and dry air above the 700mb layer has given way to
a highly unstable environment, with MLCAPEs over the southern 
half of the region increasing to between 2500 to 3500 J/kg. 
Although shear remains relatively low (effective bulk shear around
15kts), DCAPEs across the region are around 1000 to 1200 J/kg. 
This suggests that storms that do pop up have the potential to 
become strong to possibly severe, with the main hazards including 
gusty downdraft winds, large hail, and heavy rainfall. Storms will
push offshore by the evening hours. 

For Friday, all eyes point upstream at the likely development of an 
MCS over the Oklahoma/Texas region, in association with the stout 
upper-level shortwave. This feature will quickly dive southeastward, 
reaching our northwestern zones by the mid afternoon hours. There is 
still some model discrepancy regarding timing as well as intensity 
with this feature, however, current thinking suggests that it will 
pass over our region through the late afternoon and push to the 
south and east of our area by the early to mid evening hours. Recent 
model trends also suggest that the MCS will begin to disorganize and 
weaken as it pushes through our region, thanks to the upper 
shortwave beginning to shear out and lift to the northeast. Although 
the best forcing leaves the MCS behind, high instability out ahead 
(MLCAPEs reaching 2000-3000 J/kg in spots) and strong 700mb flow 
punching in from behind should allow the MCS to continue down to the 
coast, being maintained by outflow. In any case, even with the 
weakening trend, still anticipating some strong to severe storms in 
association with this feature and SPC currently has much of the area 
under a Slight Risk. Primary hazards include damaging winds, large 
hail, and heavy rainfall. 

Highs will generally be in the low to mid 90s across the region
with heat indices likely approaching the upper 90s to lower 100s 
for many locations. Lows tonight will be in the upper 60s north 
and the low to mid 70s for points south. Lastly, a LOW risk of rip
currents is expected to continue through the period. /96

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z issuance...Showers and thunderstorms are developing across
our coastal counties this afternoon and will continue to push 
southward. Expect reduced visibilities, lower ceilings, and gusty
winds in some of the heavier storms. Storms will push offshore by
the evening and VFR conditions will prevail through the remainder
of the period. /96 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob