923 
FXUS64 KHUN 090908
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
408 AM CDT Thu Jun 9 2022

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 408 AM CDT Thu Jun 9 2022

Light-moderate showers continue to spread southeastward across 
portions of the TN Valley this morning in the residual warm/moist 
sector airmass to the south of a cold front currently dropping 
through Middle TN. The cold front, which is related to a 
pronounced mid-level vort max and surface low currently lifting 
east-northeastward across the northern Mid-Atlantic region, should
advance southward through our CWFA late this morning/early this 
afternoon, ending the lingering risk for showers across our 
southeastern forecast zones. Although light northerly winds will 
advect a drier airmass into the region this afternoon, partly 
cloudy skies will still offer sufficient insolation to allow highs
to reach the m-u 70s in elevated terrain and l-m 80s in valley 
locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 408 AM CDT Thu Jun 9 2022

Latest model guidance still suggests that the subtropical ridge 
currently centered across south TX will retreat to the northwest 
overnight and become positioned across AZ/NM and adjacent portions
of northwestern Mexico, as a significant shortwave trough dives 
southeastward across the MO Valley. This shortwave disturbance is 
predicted to initiate another complex of thunderstorms late this 
afternoon across NE that should grow upscale into an MCS as it 
dives southeastward into the Ozark Plateau by 12Z Friday. As this 
system advances further southeastward across the Mid-South on 
Friday morning, it will encounter a fairly stable airmass on its 
northern extent, as both temperatures and dewpoints around sunrise
tomorrow will likely be in the m-u 50s across our region. Thus, 
it is becoming increasingly apparent that the center of this MCS 
(and region of greatest thunderstorm and severe wind/hail risk) 
will track along the instability gradient and largely miss our 
region to the southwest. A modest increase in synoptic scale 
ascent related to the shortwave trough will support some shower 
and embedded thunderstorm activity along the northern fringe of 
the MCS that would affect our region on Friday afternoon and 
evening, but significant impacts from this system are becoming 
less likely for the TN Valley.

Clouds will persist across the forecast area through the late 
morning hours on Saturday, with a few light showers also possible 
as a secondary vort max digs through the base of the broader 
longwave trough over eastern North America. However, sufficient 
clearing should occur during the afternoon to support highs 
similar to what we will experience today (after a slightly cooler 
day tomorrow). Although skies will remain clear during the 
overnight hours on Saturday, lows will be a bit warmer on Sunday 
morning (l-m 60s) due to the onset of light southerly winds and 
boundary layer moisture advection.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 408 AM CDT Thu Jun 9 2022

The longwave trough across eastern North America is predicted to 
lift out early in the extended period, allowing the subtropical 
ridge to our southwest to strengthen and expand eastward, becoming
centered over the Arklamiss region by 12Z Monday. As the ridge 
continues to intensify and establish itself across the TN Valley, 
temperatures will respond by warming into the u80s-l90s on Sunday
and l-m 90s on Monday and Tuesday. This will unfortunately occur 
as dewpoints rise back into the u60s-l70s, and heat index readings
in the 100-105 degree range will be common for valley locations 
on both Monday and Tuesday afternoons. Although the configuration 
and position of the ridge may not change much during the 
Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe, there are some indications in the GFS
and ECMWF model data that outflow-driven convection originating 
to the northeast of the local area may become an increasing threat
both days, as several small scale disturbances could travel 
anticyclonically around the center of the ridge. We have included 
a slight chance POP for all areas on Wednesday afternoon, and 
indicated a gradual reduction in max temps to reflect this 
reasoning.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Thu Jun 9 2022

Based on latest trends in Doppler radar data, it appears as if 
isolated-widely scattered SHRA will be possible across portions of
the region though the early morning hours in advance of an 
approaching cold front. However, impacts at the terminals will be 
minimal (if at all), and we will not include precipitation in the 
forecast attm. Otherwise, sct-bkn layers of As will persist until 
the time of fropa, which should occur in the 13-16Z timeframe. As 
low-level flow veers to the NW in the wake of the front, drier air
will be advected into the region, providing generally clear skies
for the remainder of the valid TAF period.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM...70/DD
LONG TERM...70/DD
AVIATION...70/DD