202 
FXHW60 PHFO 070145
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
345 PM HST Mon Jun 6 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
The mostly dry weather pattern will continue. Light to moderate 
trade winds will deliver limited moisture to windward areas, mainly 
during nights and mornings. Afternoon sea breezes will prompt some 
clouds over leeward and interior areas, but very little rainfall is 
expected. Trade winds may strengthen next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A surface ridge about 250 miles N of Kauai is supporting light to 
moderate trade winds, with few low clouds approaching the islands 
this afternoon. Daytime heating of the islands has allowed afternoon 
sea breezes to prompt some low cloud development over leeward 
slopes, but rainfall has been essentially absent today. The 
atmosphere remains strongly capped by a subsidence inversion based 
near 5000 feet, with near normal PWAT of 1.1".  

Despite an interesting looking low aloft over the islands in this 
afternoon's water vapor imagery, the mostly dry weather pattern will 
continue. The forecast anticipates that the surface ridge will be 
just N of the islands this week, with some subtle fluctuations in 
position in strength. In this regime, winds will tend to be lighter 
and veered to the SE near Kauai, with stronger E winds near the Big 
Island. In the short term, some strengthening of the ridge may lead 
to slightly stronger trade winds Tuesday. As the ridge weakens and 
moves S around midweek, lighter winds are expected through the end 
of the week. The ridge is expected to move N and strengthen next 
weekend, bringing stronger trade winds. 

The trade winds will deliver limited moisture to windward areas that 
will favor nights and mornings, but land breezes may become strong 
enough to keep moisture offshore at times. Leeward sea breezes will 
drive the formation of clouds over leeward and interior areas in the 
afternoons and evenings. Overall, very little rainfall is expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
Light to moderate trade winds are being observed across the state 
this afternoon as a a surface ridge remains located north of Kauai. 
Cloud coverage has increased in sheltered locations and on the 
leeward side of the Big Island as sea breezes have developed in 
these areas. With stable air in place, shower activity has remained 
limited with VFR flight conditions prevailing statewide.

Tonight, clouds will diminish over interior sections of the islands 
as land breezes resume. The light to moderate trade winds will 
continue through much of the week, allowing for increased interior 
clouds during the afternoons with improvement during the overnight 
hours.

There are currently no AIRMETs in effect and none are anticipated 
through tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
A surface high pressure ridge just north of the islands will produce 
gentle to moderate winds the next couple of days. The west-to-east 
orientation of this ridge will maintain typically east to southeast 
moderate winds east of the island chain, with more easterly trade 
winds west and south of the state, through the remainder of the work 
week. No significant swell arrivals will generally keep local 
nearshore sea heights around four to five feet through Friday. The 
pressure gradient back to the islands will subtly tighten from 
surface high pressure centered northeast of the region and trades 
will respond by strengthening to more fresh magnitudes this weekend. 
Small Craft Advisories may be needed this weekend for those channels 
and bays surrounding Maui County and Big Island. 

Small, low to medium period south swells will keep surf along south 
facing shores at or slightly under seasonal norms the next few days.
This recent small, low period northwest swell will fade going into 
Tuesday with surf falling to around three feet or under along many 
northern and western exposures. Eastern facing shores will 
experience a small wind wave chop during the week during this 
extended period of weaker trades.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Birchard
AVIATION...Vaughan
MARINE...Blood